Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc (POT)

POT (NYSE:Chemicals) EQUITY
$18.59
pos +0.00
+0.00%
Today's Range: 0.00 - 0.00 | POT Avg Daily Volume: 7,538,800
Last Update: 12/06/16 - 4:02 PM EST
Volume: 0
YTD Performance: 8.59%
Open: $0.00
Previous Close: $18.59
52 Week Range: $14.64 - $19.38
Oustanding Shares: 839,643,474
Market Cap: 15,550,197,138
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for POT
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
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Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy 3 3 4 4
Moderate Buy 2 2 1 0
Hold 7 7 8 7
Moderate Sell 1 1 1 1
Strong Sell 1 1 1 2
Mean Rec. 2.64 2.64 2.60 2.79
Latest Dividend: 0.10
Latest Dividend Yield: 2.16%
Dividend Ex-Date: 01/10/17
Price Earnings Ratio: 32.49
Price Earnings Comparisons:
POT Sector Avg. S&P 500
32.49 32.50 0.00
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
5.27% -1.85% -41.06%
GROWTH 12 Mo 3 Yr CAGR
Revenue -11.70 -0.20 -0.07
Net Income -17.30 -0.40 -0.15
EPS -16.50 -0.40 -0.14
Earnings for POT:
EBITDA 2.41B
Revenue 6.28B
Average Earnings Estimates
Qtr (12/16) Qtr (03/17) FY (12/16) FY (12/17)
Average Estimate $0.10 $0.09 $0.51 $0.65
Number of Analysts 6 3 6 10
High Estimate $0.16 $0.13 $0.54 $0.98
Low Estimate $0.03 $0.07 $0.45 $0.36
Prior Year $0.24 $0.15 $1.52 $0.51
Growth Rate (Year over Year) -57.64% -37.78% -66.67% 28.29%
Chart Benchmark
Average Frequency Timeframe
Indicator Chart Scale  
Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar has weakened considerably. The price of crude oil was down by about two bits to $51.45. Gold fell by another $4 to $1,174. Ag commodities got a lift: wheat up $0.04, corn up $0.11, soybeans up $0.16, oats down $0.15. Lumber down $2. Bonds, the object of my affection today ("Trade of the Week"), reversed from early morning lows. After yields rose by more than 4 basis points on the 10-year, the close was relatively flat. TLT slipped $1.20 from Friday's close, ending the day slightly higher. Bravo! Municipal bonds sold off. But closed-end muni-bond funds got a lift (e.g., Eaton Vance Municipal Incm 2028 Term (ETX) and Blackrock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (BBN) ) -- hard to explain why, though! The 2s/10s spread dropped by two basis points to 127 basis points. Banks, stated simply, are continuing to be the "world's fair" -- regardless of what rates do. Short Bank of America (BAC) , Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) (all small). Brokerages bullish -- led by Goldman Sachs (GS) (on a late HSBC (HSBC) buy upgrade today, seriously??!!!). But insurance lagged, though my long Hartford Financial (HIG) was modestly higher. Auto stocks stalled. I am still small short General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) . Retail was stronger -- with upside leadership from Nordstrom (JWN)  , Best Buy (BBY)  , Foot Locker (FL)  , Nike (NKE) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) . JC Penney (JCP)

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar strengthened, a continuing headwind for companies that derive much from non-U.S. territories and regions. The price of crude oil +$3.85 on the OPEC agreement -- a feature of today's trading session. Gold down $15 to $1,175. Ag commodities: wheat down $0.06, corn down $0.01, soybeans down $0.10 (finally correcting the big advance) and oats up $0.01. Lumber up $1. Bonds got taken to the woodshed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note rose by eight basis points and the long end climbed by a like amount. The 2s/10s spread widened by six bps to 128 basis points. Municipals got hit. Large losses, again in closed-end muni bond funds. Stay away!  High yield was modestly higher in price and lower in yield. Blackstone / GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB)  down $0.02 cents. Banks responded to rising rates and a steeper yield curve. I am still in my short rental in Citigroup (C) , JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) . Brokerages were the "world's fair" as the Mnuchin hire (former Goldman partner) as Treasury secretary kindled the animal spirits in Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) . Insurance companies prospered. Long Hartford Financial (HIG) recovered. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) , lagged. Auto stocks were weak. See Peak Autos and disarray in auto lending markets.  Energy stocks exploded. Retail was conspicuously weaker with only Best Buy (BBY) on my screen, higher in share price. JC Penney (JCP) off only by a nickel. (I am bidding $9ish for JCP). Target (TGT) , Walmart (WMT) and Coach (COH) downside leaders. Old tech was noticeably weak - International Business Machines (IBM) , a downside feature. Consumer staples were weaker and my fav short in the sector, Coca-Cola (KO) was down 2% at a new y
Indicators on POT have come together in a positive way that was missing in August.
The market continues to trade well. After an initial test equities have rebounded smartly. (I am in a small net short position and ready and willing to sell strength this week). I will stick with my projection, made last December in my 15 Surprises for 2016, (check No. 10) that Clinton receives 293 electoral votes and Trump captures 245 votes. The strong Hispanic turnout thus far -- especially in Miami-Dade county -- more than any group will likely fuel a Clinton victory. The ending of the Philadelphia transit strike will also aid Clinton. I don't expect Donald Trump (if he loses) to make a typical concession speech.

Analyst Actions Real Money Pro($)

BMO downgrades JPMorgan Chase (JPM) to neutral.

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar soared, something I highlighted very early in the morning as an important factor in my short-term negative view of the equity market. The price of crude oil fell by $0.56 to $50.79 after several days of strength. Gold was down $4.30 to $1,256 after a better start earlier in the day. I plan to add on weakness. I don't expect a December rate increase (see below) and more central bank lunacy and limited fiscal flexibility in a partisan Washington next year. Ag commodities: wheat up $0.03; corn up $0.02; soybeans down $0.01; and oats up 2 $0.02. Bonds rallied in yield but declined in price. The 10- and 30-year note and bond climbed by 3 basis points in yield. The 2s/10s spread (yield curve) rose to 90 basis points. Munis were sold and junk bonds weakened more considerably. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB)  was down only $0.02. Banks held up fairly well under the circumstances as bond yields rose. I haven't pulled the trigger on short Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , but I am close as the yield curve remains flat. However insurance and brokerages got hit. Last week's short pickups in Metlife (MET) and Lincoln National (LNC) turned out well. Autos and energy lower. Retail was on sale. Warm weather hit the sector's earnings in the soon to be released quarter, but this is starting to be discounted as the turn in weather (colder) now could bode well for the important Christmas/holiday quarter. Biotech got schmeissed -- something I warned readers to expect (after Illumina (ILMN) issued lower guidance) in my "Takeaways" last night. Celgene (CELG) , Gilead Sciences (GILD) (everyone's very value biotech, I see it as a value trap; today it hit a year low) and Allergen (AGN) all much lower. Speculative biotech tanked. Trump's rogue actions today and Clinton's overwhelming strength in the polls may have also contributed to today's train wreck in biotech. Ag equipment stalled despite a Goldman Sachs (GS) upgrade. Old media lower, led by losses in IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC) . Fertilizers not so crappy with gains in Monsanto (MON) and Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) . Media under assault again. All four components of (T)FANG were lower, but far less than the market' drop. Netflix (NFLX) , my only short, looks to be breaking down. In terms of individual stocks, Oaktree Financial (OAK) was a sap, but I added, as was JCP, which I also added to. In the latter retailer the colder weather is a plus but the third quarter will likely have been hit (along with other retailers) by the unseasonably warm weather. At $9 I expect the market might look through a disappointment. Unconfirmed rumors that Prince Alaweed might raise his position in Twitter buoyed the shares as did continued Salesforce (CRM) takeover chatter (albeit at a lower price). Here are some value-added contributions on our site. 1. Jim "El Capitan" Cramer clearly doesn't agree with my negativity in " Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide." Jim sees the absence of new money as an integral factor today - while I have more fundamental issues that I raised in my opener, "The Market Outlook Worsen." 2

A Good Day to be Short Real Money Pro($)

Why I sold Twitter on Friday. Why upside/downside targets are my investing religion.  Why it would be Goofy for Disney (DIS) to buy Twitter. Remember media companies, unlike Google and Salesforce, are bounded by EPS and cash flow. Disney has its own problems. I remain short.  A contrary view: Don't bank on the banks. As I mentioned (and added to my aforementioned thesis to avoid financials) to Jimmy Cramer in an email late this afternoon:   Jim, It is clear the Fed WANTS to raise in December. It is also clear that the rate of growth in domestic economy is slowing. If the Fed raises and the economy remains moribund, we risk a flatter curve rather than a steeper curve -- which is bad for banks and goes against the meme that a rate rise will help improve NIM and lead to improved valuations.   Fertilizer stocks trade like crap. Stay away. I am.   Damn, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) ! ($20 in last three days) I was impatient and

You've Been Warned Real Money Pro($)

We continue to have some subscribers in the Comments section as supporters of fertilizer stocks, such as Potash (POT) et al.   A…
The global bond market, including taxable-bond plays like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) , non-taxables like the iShares S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund (MUB) and high-yield securities like the iShares iBoxx U.S. Dollar High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) . I would not be long any closed-end municipal bond funds or junk-bond funds, e.g. (BGG)  (down $0.15). All bond surrogates. That includes real estate investment trusts like the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (IYR) recently placed on Best Ideas List, consumer staples and utilities. Growth stocks like Amazon, (AMZN) , Netflix (NFLX)  and Tesla (TSLA) . Banks, despite the general drop in bond prices. Retail plays, including Home Depot (HD) , Nordstroms (JWN) , Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) . The price of crude oil and oil stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) . Fertilizer companies like Monsanto (MON) and Potash (POT) . Media stocks like Walt Disney (DIS) . Consumer-discretionary stocks, including Starbucks (SBUX) . Consumer staples such as Coca-Cola (KO) . Autos, including Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) . The S&P 500 (SPY) .
Fertilizer company could be a takeover target.

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