Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc (POT)

POT (NYSE:Chemicals) EQUITY
$17.05
neg -0.04
-0.23%
Today's Range: 16.99 - 17.17 | POT Avg Daily Volume: 5,740,500
Last Update: 03/24/17 - 12:18 PM EDT
Volume: 1,926,843
YTD Performance: -5.53%
Open: $17.08
Previous Close: $17.09
52 Week Range: $15.21 - $20.27
Oustanding Shares: 839,914,555
Market Cap: 14,312,144,017
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for POT
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
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Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy 3 3 3 3
Moderate Buy 1 2 2 2
Hold 6 7 6 7
Moderate Sell 1 1 1 1
Strong Sell 0 0 1 1
Mean Rec. 2.45 2.46 2.62 2.64
Latest Dividend: 0.10
Latest Dividend Yield: 2.35%
Dividend Ex-Date: 03/29/17
Price Earnings Ratio: 44.84
Price Earnings Comparisons:
POT Sector Avg. S&P 500
44.84 44.80 30.30
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
-5.16% -1.56% -50.20%
GROWTH 12 Mo 3 Yr CAGR
Revenue -29.00 -0.40 -0.15
Net Income -74.60 -0.80 -0.43
EPS -75.00 -0.80 -0.42
Earnings for POT:
EBITDA 1.19B
Revenue 4.46B
Average Earnings Estimates
Qtr (03/17) Qtr (06/17) FY (12/17) FY (12/18)
Average Estimate $0.10 $0.17 $0.51 $0.64
Number of Analysts 6 4 7 7
High Estimate $0.13 $0.19 $0.55 $0.85
Low Estimate $0.08 $0.16 $0.46 $0.52
Prior Year $0.15 $0.18 $0.51 $0.51
Growth Rate (Year over Year) -32.22% -5.56% 0.84% 24.72%
Chart Benchmark
Average Frequency Timeframe
Indicator Chart Scale  
Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands

Takeaways & Observations Real Money Pro($)

"I had nothing to offer anybody except my own confusion." -- Jack Kerouac 
POT reaffirms forecast of 61-64 million tons of potash demand in 2017 They don't have the final data for 2016 POT had a record second-half Canpotex shipments in 2016; fully committed for 1Q 2017 Lower gross margin in the quarter was due primarily to weaker prices
The reflation trade is league leading today -- especially materials. The Russell Index is crowing today. Banks, insurance and brokerages. Two percent gains are routine today. Crude oil is up $0.57. IBM (IBM) is a monster (up $5). And so is DuPont (DD) (up $3.60) Fertilizers are an upside highlight led by my old pal, Potash Corporation of Saskachewan (POT) . (up $1.22) New highs Radian (RDN) and Campbell Soup (CPB) . Oaktree Financial (OAK) continues its run of daily gains. Media better, led by Comcast (CMCSA) and Disney (DIS) . Ag equipment. Added to Caterpillar (CAT) short. The Bad Gold off $7. Despite strength in fertilizers and other commodities -- ag commodities are lower with wheat, oats and corn getting hit. Biotech - broad based and speculative -- much weaker. (T)FANG underperforming after a nice run. Apple (AAPL) is conspicuous in

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar's relentless climb continued -- now at $1.038 against the euro. This will cripple multi-nationals. For now, ignored. But we will begin to hear of corporate warnings (45% of S&P 500 earnings per share are non-U.S-based) shortly from this variable. There are several trillion dollars worth of U.S. dollar-based debt issued by non-U.S. entities. Another concern. The price of crude oil was relatively flat at $52.20, a gain of a dime. Gold down $10 to new lows at $1,132. Ag commodities generally weaker: wheat down $0.02, corn down $0.03, soybeans down $0.16 and oats down $0.02. Lumber up $4.50. Bonds wilted. The 10-year note yield rose 3 basis points and the long bond by a like amount. The 2s/10s spread expanded by another 3 basis points to 136 basis points. Munis were weaker but closed-end muni-bond funds were mixed. Junk bonds were unchanged, and Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fun (BGB) rose by two pennies. Banks continued their monster mash. So did brokerages (led again by Goldman Sachs (GS) ) and insurance. Auto stocks were higher, but modestly so. Energy stocks were flat. Retail stocks rallied, on cue! Biotech up 1%, led by Celgene (CELG) and spec Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) (on good FDA news). Big pharma continues to stink up the joint. Broadly lower. Old tech was mixed. Good cover on trading short of Cisco Systems (CSCO) last week. Fertilizers mixed with Monsanto (MON) and Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) exchanging price performance from yesterday. Consumer staples succumbed to the stronger currency, but long Campbell Soup (CPB) made a new high on the move. Ag equipment was strong despite weak dealer data from Caterpillar (CAT) . (T)FANG was mixed and under-performed with Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX) lower and Tesla (TSLA) , Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) higher. In individual names,
The U.S. dollar strengthened on Fed chair Janet Yellen's labor market remarks. Multinationals face this expanding headwind. And so do countries that have borrowed in U.S. dollars. The price of crude oil flat lined. Gold up $2. Ag commodities lower across-the-board: wheat down $0.02, corn $0.04, soybeans $0.13 and oats up $0.01. Lumber down $2.50. Bonds staged a good rally. The yield on the 10-year fell by 5 basis points to 2.55% and the long bond by a comparable amount. The 2s/10s spread fell by 2 basis points to 131 basis points. Municipals were well bid and closed-end muni bonds enjoyed an up (but modest) improvement. Junk bonds were also higher. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB)  up $0.03. Banks held their gains despite lower bond yields. Insurance stocks were mixed. Brokerages showed no price movement. Autos continue to stall. I am out of my shorts, here. Energy stocks were unchanged, in line with crude oil. No positions here, either. Biotech did little. Dead cat bounce for Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) . Gilead Sciences (GILD) rallied and some speculative biotech ripped (Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA) , Intrexon (XON) ). Retail (more on this subject tomorrow) was irregularly higher, led by JC Penney (JCP) , Kohl's (KSS) and Home Depot (HD) . Media was stronger, led by Disney (DIS) , which got a Bank of America (BAC) upgrade. Fertilizers are mixed - Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) lower (I am still not interested in this name), Monsanto (MON) higher. Consumer staples were lower - with Kimberly Clark (KMB) and Coca-Cola (KO) leading to downside. But Campbell Soup (CPB) , a long, caught a bid. Ag equipment mixed, showing no correlation today to commodities. (FANG) was higher, but moderately so. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL)  were both up. In individual stocks DuPont (DD) still DuLovely. Radian (RDN) now modestly higher, after being weak all day. Oaktree Capital OAK still getting its leaves t

Checking Out Potash Real Money Pro($)

POT Cautiously Optimistic on '17; Progress on Regulatory Approvals: While POT struck a cautiously optimistic tone on its outlook for '17, broad commentary was more constructive on potash and was cautiously optimistic on nitrogen, while phosphate markets appear set to remain challenging. Discussions regarding the AGU merger appear ongoing with regulators in 4 of the initial 6 key geographies requiring approval; POT indicated that approvals have been granted in Brazil and Russia (as expected) while discussions are ongoing with regulators in the US, Canada, China and India. POT Still Constructive on Potash in '17; Expects Pricing Momentum: Contrary to our own view, POT sees healthy potash demand in 2017 in the US, Brazil, China and India and expects global volumes to grow to 61mmt-64mmt (from CSe ~58mmt in '16). POT believes demand in the US is flowing directly into fields, leaving the channel ripe for tonnage growth in 2017; CSe sees '17 US vols as flat to slightly negative. Furthermore, POT also believes Brazil and SE Asia price momentum will continue into 2017 as it expects demand growth to remain healthy and producer discipline to remain strong. On the supply side, POT expects to generate cash costs of ~$70/mt in 2017 with the Rocanville ramp and FX offsetting curtailments at Cory and Lanigan. Cautiously Optimistic Outlook on N, Phosphates Remain Challenged: POT expects '17 to be slightly better for N (albeit choppy) and stressed T&T tonnage is still competitive, even at lower ammonia prices; it appears supply side rationalizations in China are ongoing by curtailing smaller facilities which are not economically viable and/or major polluters. On the back of a few contract cancellations in India, POT appears more cautious on phosphates (albeit LT constructive) as new supply plagues the NT price outlook and OCP appears to be gaining share in Central Asia (consistent w/ our house views).
Who would want to sell short in this environment?

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar has weakened considerably. The price of crude oil was down by about two bits to $51.45. Gold fell by another $4 to $1,174. Ag commodities got a lift: wheat up $0.04, corn up $0.11, soybeans up $0.16, oats down $0.15. Lumber down $2. Bonds, the object of my affection today ("Trade of the Week"), reversed from early morning lows. After yields rose by more than 4 basis points on the 10-year, the close was relatively flat. TLT slipped $1.20 from Friday's close, ending the day slightly higher. Bravo! Municipal bonds sold off. But closed-end muni-bond funds got a lift (e.g., Eaton Vance Municipal Incm 2028 Term (ETX) and Blackrock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (BBN) ) -- hard to explain why, though! The 2s/10s spread dropped by two basis points to 127 basis points. Banks, stated simply, are continuing to be the "world's fair" -- regardless of what rates do. Short Bank of America (BAC) , Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) (all small). Brokerages bullish -- led by Goldman Sachs (GS) (on a late HSBC (HSBC) buy upgrade today, seriously??!!!). But insurance lagged, though my long Hartford Financial (HIG) was modestly higher. Auto stocks stalled. I am still small short General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) . Retail was stronger -- with upside leadership from Nordstrom (JWN)  , Best Buy (BBY)  , Foot Locker (FL)  , Nike (NKE) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) . JC Penney (JCP)

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar strengthened, a continuing headwind for companies that derive much from non-U.S. territories and regions. The price of crude oil +$3.85 on the OPEC agreement -- a feature of today's trading session. Gold down $15 to $1,175. Ag commodities: wheat down $0.06, corn down $0.01, soybeans down $0.10 (finally correcting the big advance) and oats up $0.01. Lumber up $1. Bonds got taken to the woodshed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note rose by eight basis points and the long end climbed by a like amount. The 2s/10s spread widened by six bps to 128 basis points. Municipals got hit. Large losses, again in closed-end muni bond funds. Stay away!  High yield was modestly higher in price and lower in yield. Blackstone / GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB)  down $0.02 cents. Banks responded to rising rates and a steeper yield curve. I am still in my short rental in Citigroup (C) , JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) . Brokerages were the "world's fair" as the Mnuchin hire (former Goldman partner) as Treasury secretary kindled the animal spirits in Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) . Insurance companies prospered. Long Hartford Financial (HIG) recovered. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) , lagged. Auto stocks were weak. See Peak Autos and disarray in auto lending markets.  Energy stocks exploded. Retail was conspicuously weaker with only Best Buy (BBY) on my screen, higher in share price. JC Penney (JCP) off only by a nickel. (I am bidding $9ish for JCP). Target (TGT) , Walmart (WMT) and Coach (COH) downside leaders. Old tech was noticeably weak - International Business Machines (IBM) , a downside feature. Consumer staples were weaker and my fav short in the sector, Coca-Cola (KO) was down 2% at a new y
Indicators on POT have come together in a positive way that was missing in August.

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