Lincoln National Corp (LNC)

LNC (NYSE:Insurance) EQUITY
$35.78
pos +0.00
+0.00%
Today's Range: 35.52 - 36.85 | LNC Avg Daily Volume: 2,166,900
Last Update: 02/05/16 - 4:02 PM EST
Volume: 0
YTD Performance: -28.81%
Open: $0.00
Previous Close: $35.91
52 Week Range: $35.22 - $62.08
Oustanding Shares: 247,470,994
Market Cap: 8,886,683,395
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for LNC
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
TheStreet Ratings is the source for accurate ratings that you can rely upon to make sound, informed financial decisions. Click here to find out about our methodology.
Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy 5 5 5 5
Moderate Buy 1 2 2 2
Hold 6 5 5 5
Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0
Strong Sell 0 0 0 0
Mean Rec. 2.04 1.96 1.96 1.96
Latest Dividend: 0.25
Latest Dividend Yield: 2.78%
Dividend Ex-Date: 01/07/16
Price Earnings Ratio: 7.96
Price Earnings Comparisons:
LNC Sector Avg. S&P 500
7.96 7.60 30.32
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
-35.08% -33.47% 21.62%
GROWTH 12 Mo 3 Yr CAGR
Revenue 13.20 0.27 0.08
Net Income 21.80 4.01 0.70
EPS 25.40 5.05 0.81
Earnings for LNC:
EBITDA 2.26B
Revenue 13.55B
Average Earnings Estimates
Qtr (03/16) Qtr (06/16) FY (12/16) FY (12/17)
Average Estimate $1.51 $1.57 $6.40 $6.99
Number of Analysts 7 7 10 6
High Estimate $1.55 $1.63 $6.75 $7.10
Low Estimate $1.48 $1.49 $6.15 $6.80
Prior Year $1.35 $1.46 $5.46 $6.40
Growth Rate (Year over Year) 12.06% 7.73% 17.22% 9.17%
Chart Benchmark Timeframe
Average Frequency Indicator Chart
Scale Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands
The market is almost unplayable for most. A crude reversal likely was the catalyst for the turnaround, as quants ran on board the train from the morning lows. As I mentioned this morning, there is little edge or trend right now. If you trade, keep your value at risk (VAR) low because the large swings can produce big profit/loss changes on relatively small positions. Volatility "cubed" in a market dominated by machines and algos that don't look at income statements or balance sheets and have no concept of intrinsic value. It's in Nowhere Land, at least on a short term basis.  But I am of the view that the primary/intermediate trend is lower -- time to trade and be careful with investments. I still look for a low double-digit decline in the S&P 500 in 2016. Ss (S&P) over Ns (Nasdaq) and Rs flat (Russell). I traded actively today with some success, trying to be opportunistic and trying to embrace panic and euphoria. In other words, "Get It While You Can" is my mantra.  I ended the day market-neutral, shorting SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 40-handle move off the lows ($191.35).  My five largest longs and shorts.  The decline in the value of the U.S. dollar was a key feature of the trading day, though I heard little discussion in the business media. Crude oil reversed dramatically, closing up $2.52 a barrel. Nat gas was unchanged. Gold was up another $13.40 per ouce. Still working on a memo on precious metals. Agricultural commodities: wheat up three cents, corn down two cents, soybean nine cents lower  and oats four cents lower. After a lot of intraday movement, bonds were essentially unchanged, with the 10-year and 30-year up by one to three basis points in yield. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) was down more than a beaner. Municipals were well-bid and closed-end municipal bond funds were up by a few cents apiece. High yield was bid. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was up 38 cents and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was up 12 cents. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) was seven cents to the good. Bank-selling got panicky early in the day, I added across the board. Comerica (CMA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Blackstone Group (BX) and Goldman Sachs (GS) ended the day higher after a pressured morning session. I observed that bank-centric sovereign debt funds might be responsible for the almost irrational selling of late. Here's my Chart of the Day on the aforementioned selling by sovereign wealth funds.  Staples responded well to a lower dollar Energy stocks were flat despite the ride in the resource. Biotech looks awful; they were flat on the day with Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) rallying but Allergan (AGN) declining. Old tech didn't participate in the afternoon rally, but IBM (IBM) rose by $1.50. Alibaba (BABA) and Yahoo! (YHOO) were bad. Retail was mixed, with Macy's (M) a leader to the upside and Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) downside leaders with large dollar drops today. I bought more GS (it rallied by $4 from today's purchase), Morgan Stanley (MS) (big recovery) and BX (nice reversal). (T)FANG is breaking down and rolling over -- a constant refrain of mine over the last four months. Tesla (TSLA) was down $10, Netflix (NFLX) down $1 and Alphabet (GOOGL) reversed most of its previous-day gain. Amazon (AMZN), which I featured today, continues to get schmeissed -- down $21. It is Bill Miller's largest holding (about 10% weighting). but I disagree, respectfully, with Bill. NOSH was broadly lower, led by Starbucks (SBUX) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY). CRABBY looked better, with only Allstate (ALL) and BAC lower. In individual stocks: Procter & Gamble (PG) and DuPont (DD) -- two new Best Ideas List entrants as longs -- were standouts to the upside. Potash (POT) reversed yesterday's loss. Life insurance stocks, including my shorts Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET0, were standouts to the downside (again). I hope you enjoyed

The Longs and Shorts of It Real Money Pro($)

My five largest longs: Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), duPont (DD), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Macy's (M).

Nowhere Land? (Part Deux) Real Money Pro($)

The Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank, which has limited the ability of brokerages to assume risk and carry inventory of equities and fixed-income products. A low commission structure that creates little incentive to assume capital risk. The elimination of the specialist system that no longer provides a human element to buffer declines and market distortions. The elimination of the uptick rule on short sales. Strange brew, indeed." -- Doug's Daily Diary, Strange Market Brew Bubbles Up Volatility (Feb. 2, 2016) In Motion ... Locomotion "Come on, come on And do the Loco-motion with me." -- Little Eva, The Locomotion I've rarely been busier trading than I have been over the past two weeks. While I've generally been more active in individual stocks, I'll use the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to illustrate my quickly changing strategy since mid-January: I bought SPY two weeks ago on the S&P 500's Jan. 20 "noon swoon" and capitulation low, where spiders traded down to $181 a share. I sold the some of my long positions when SPY rallied back to $190 several days later. Then, I went to a large net-long exposure in the belief that "the third time's the charm" and that SPY would breach $191 resistance to the upside. Soon thereafter, Spiders did indeed break out of their technical resistance and climbed to $194. I began to scale out of
I came in small-size short -- average cost of about $194 shorting SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -- and ended the day at market-neutral exposure. Covered my short SPY from yesterday at reasonably good levels (see Columnist Conversations). It's not about the Benjamins, it's all about the quants.  A year of surprises lies ahead, 'cause baby it's cold outside.  Watch housing, because it could be the next shoe to drop.  The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro. Gold was unchanged. I'm working on a memo on the asset class. Silver down a nickel. Oil vey. Crude oil equals schmeissburger. Down by $1.60 a barrel. In agricultural commodities, wheat up a penny, corn up two cents, soybeans up a nickel and OJ futures up $2.50. Lumber up $8.50. Bonds were the world's fair, with most maturities down by 10 basis points between five and 30 years. The 10-year yield is back down to 1.85%. My advice? Refinance! I am. Nontaxables were well-bid and closed-end municipal bond funds followed their asset class higher. High yield acted like stocks, junky. Near the close, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 55 cents and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was down 30 cents. But no worse than yesterday. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) got hit for a few pennies after a solid three-day run. Peak autos, I tell ya. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) down by 60 cents each. Both on my Best Ideas List.  Peak Ferrari.  Retail was hit after a good run. Consumer staples weakened despite a lower currency. Old tech was crippled; a broad-based decline with Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) leading to the downside. Biotech gave back their recent gains, with primary and secondary stocks getting clipped. My spec Intrexon (XON) got punished. Banks give up all of Friday's gains. I've given my reasons for this performance. As well, there seem to be fears of a possible Sanders nod, which still seems an unlikely event. If he is the Democratic nominee, I would not be surprised to see Mike Bloomberg enter the fray. If Bloomberg did not enter, a Sanders Democratic presidential nominee likely improves the chances of a Republican presidential victory, which would be friendly to bank stocks. LIfe insurance stocks at new lows -- I gotta tell you my Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET) shorts are killing it. But I am slowly adding to Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) against 'em. (T)FANG was a schmeissburgter, except stock du jour Alphabet (GOOGL). Tesla (TSLA) was down another $15 and Amazon (AMZN) another $23 and within $2 of my short cover from the other day. NOSH was broadly lower, led by O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and Home Depot (HD) to the downside. CRABBY was only slight lower, with Citigroup (C) and Allegheny (Y) down a large percentage on the day.  Radian Group (RDN) had another weak day, down a quarter of a beaner; I am still exploring under the hood Potash (POT) gave up the ghost after some stabilization. New Best Ideas long duPont (DD) had a breathtaking response to Dow Chemical's (DOW) earnings beat.   I am trading conservatively around the zero line becaus
My single largest industry on the short side is the life-insurance sector, specifically Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET).
I outlined my near- and intermediate-term outlook in parts one and two of this morning's opening salvo. I moved in dramatic fashion from a relatively large net long exposure taken on a week ago Wednesday and Thursday to a small net short exposure at day's end. I got more aggressive after 3 p.m. I scaled into a SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) short all day, from premarket to regular trading session (as high as $194.40) A Stanley Fischer rally? Algos sure like what he said. I view his verbiage as hedged and a non-event. The market, for the second day in a row, defied the weakness in crude oil prices, which were down $2.11 to $31.51 a barrel. Ns (Nasdaq) over Ss (S&P index) and Rs (Russell index). A strange day in light of weaker crude oil and the deteriorating price action in high yield. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro. Gold up another $12.30 -- its sixth or seventh day in a row higher, I believe (more on gold tomorrow). Agricultural commodities saw wheat down three cents with corn and soybeans flat. Lumber was unchanged. Bonds were up by two to four basis points in yield, depending on maturities. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) was down about 40 cents. Non taxables were weaker, with iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB) down by 0.2%. But muni bond funds were higher. Strange. High yield was junky;  iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 42 cents and SPDR Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was down 22 cents. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) held recent gains Banks were flattish, but they had a monster run on Friday -- up 5%. They were featured on the cover of Barron's. Citigroup (C) is the strongest name. Selected financials were strong. Blackstone Group (BX), despite a Goldman Sachs downgrade, reversed bigtime. Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) was conspicuously strong. Both BX and OAK are on my Best Ideas List.  But brokerages -- such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) -- were hit with profit- taking. Life insurance, too, was death, including Lincoln National (LNC), MetLife (MET) and Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) Retail showed large gains, led by Wal-Mart (WMT);  I eliminated a trading long rental for a large percentage gain). Macy's (M), Best Buy (BBY) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) reversed substantially to the upside. Utilities were up and highlighted in my Diary.   Staples were mixed, despite the weakening U.S. currency. The energy sector suffered under the weight of a large decline in crude oil. Biotech recovered, led by Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), Mallinckrodt (MNK), and my spec fav, Intrexon (XON). Autos had a dead-cat bounce. (T)FANG resumed its strength, though Amazon (AMZN) was down $12. Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook (FB), which hit a new high, were features. NOSH was tasty, fueled by Nike (NKE) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY). CRABBY was up small. Last program standing defines the close. Alphabet (GOOGL) tonite -- Boca Biff is short Alphabet, but he is not that good of a speller! I reinitiated a SPY short (
My opener captured my near-term market view and levels of support and resistance.  The market is in the hands of machines and algos -- they are ruining sentiment and our business.  Dow Intradaze!  Words can't describe today's (T)FANG Insanity, which was demonstrated in trading in Amazon (AMZN) both during the trading day (up $52) and after hours (down $80!). Thanks to my pal David Rocker (Rocker Partners legend) for getting me to write about the insanity. My exchanges with Rev Shark in Columnist Conversations are an example of the uniqueness of our site and the value of respected debate.  Auto stocks, despite a good Ford (F) beat, were lower on the day. I wrote again about "Peak Autos."     I covered my small Amazon short in after hours at $549. I plan to re-short on strength.  Here is my short rationale.  Ss (S &P) and Qs (Nasdaq) over Rs (Russell). The U.S. dollar was weaker. Crude oil closed up $1.46 to $33.76. Natural gas was six cents higher. Gold was down $2. I remain uninvolved and I plan to stay uninvolved. Agricultural commodities: wheat and corn were both four cents lower; soybeans got crushed, down fifteen cents. OJ prices ripped higher, up 8%. Bonds got hit a bit and interest rates rose modestly, by one to two basis points in yield. Municipals were flat but closed-end municipal bond funds rose smartly, with some gaining close to 1% --BlackRock Municipal Income Trust II (BLE), BlackRock Municipal Target Term Trust (BTT) and Eaton Vance Municipal Income 2028 Term Trust (ETX) High-yield bonds were well-bid -- iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was up 40 cents and SPDR Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was up 15 cents. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) had an outsize gain of 35 cents, the largest daily move I can remember, and traded over $13 briefly. I have remarked in each of my last three Takeaways that the price action was improving. Phew! Financials had a good day, with regional banks beating out their money center brethren. I added to Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Comerica (CMA) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) in the last two days. WFC is my long "Trade of the Week." Life insurance stocks were modestly higher. I am long Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) and short MetLife (MET) and Lincoln National (LNC). Energy stocks responded brilliantly to the crude price rise. Last week I opportunistically covered Schlumberger (SLB) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) at really good prices. Today, SLB was up $4 and XOM rose $1.70! Retail stocks were weaker, but only modestly so. I suspect the proximate cause was higher energy prices.. Old tech was stronger and Microsoft (MSFT) results were an after-hours highlight, with shares up 2%-plus after the close.  Media still is weak, led by my Best Ideas List short, Disney (DIS).  (T)FANG was insane and broadly higher, but obviously got hit after the close, reflecting Amazon's miss. Facebook (FB) was the world's fair, but Netflix (NFLX) was conspicuous in its continued underperformance. I covered FB short last week at $91.30. Tesla (TSLA), my short "Trade of the Week," was flat, including after hours. Here is my NFLX short write-up. The shares are about $20 lower than its price when I put it on my Best Ideas List as a short a bit more than three months ago. So far, so good. NOSH was strong, with Nike (NKE) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) doing well. Starbucks (SBUX) was also higher, a short. CRABBY was higher, thanks to BAC and BGB. Two new Best Ideas flourished -- Goldman Sachs (GS) and Procter & Gamble (PG). GS was up $3.40 and is now $6 above my Best Ideas price entrance. Du Pont (DD) hasn't done as well but was higher today and I am accumulating. More on all three by next week. Weight Watchers (WTW) down by more than a beaner, as Oprah gained four pounds this week from too much bread! Alibaba's (BABA) price reversal was vicious, closing down $3 after being up a like amount. The headline numbers were good, but there was less than meets the eye regarding their quality. I would stay clear of Yahoo! (YHOO) despite a lot of interest that I received from subs. Potash (POT) traded better after the dividend cut. I will update my thoughts on the conference report and results. My other loser, Radian Group (RDN), even rallied. More on this one soon -- still trying to come to grips with the reason for the sharp price drop. Glib, your name is Laszlo Birinyi. I am sorry to write so bluntly, but it's true as I vividly recall his self-confidence on "Fast Money." Self-confidence is the worst trait in a business with so much uncertainty. Remember this message when you get the "hard sells" in the business media. 
A day full of sound and fury but perhaps signifying nothing. As I expected, the Fed acknowledged tightening financial conditions in the credit markets. Spreads have widened and the cost of debt and capital has risen. Here's my Fed analysis  and my strategy.  I viewed the strength in oil, in bank stocks and in credit (high yield) as providing hope and encouragement to me. I remain upbeat. I view the selloff today as an opportunity; I added to Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Comerica (CMA), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and others. I had a damn love fest with RevShark today! Not surprisingly, stocks sold off and RevShark's correction prediction came to be. Here is what I wrote to Rev in Columnist Conversation: "I believe the obvious and consensus trade is to sell as the markets have ripped from Wednesday's lows -- of course there is a lot of space between then and now. But I am making what I believe to be the less obvious and contrary trade -- and I am buying. I believe markets will be relieved and that many are "offsides" for a further market advance. The beauty here is that you and I employ a level of transparently in our real-time trades, exercising our beliefs and show our analysis that yields our conclusions. Either outcome, I like -- and I hope is helpful to our subs." Where was the Divine Ms. M today when I needed her? On the other hand, I don't even know how to respond to Roger Arnold's over-the-top column on a "failing" Bank of America!!!!?!?!?!   But I shall remain respectful. From Columnist Conversations: "I intended to respond to your BAC column but it's been a hectic day and I didn't get the chance. I am diametrically opposed to your view, conclusion and analysis. The only way to deal with your speculative claims is to respond with facts. In the fullness of time I will show you my spreadsheets, which show that the bank's balance sheet is significantly improved and that it is growing its loan portfolio. The key to a bank's future growth is its capital and deposits, and Bank of America has plenty of both." Futures are up after the close. Up five handles -- Facebook (FB) effect? Futures recovered nearly half of the 30-point drop as of 4:40 p.m. ET. They bent but didn't break. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed down $2.07 -- it was down $3.10 at the worse level of the day. Technically, it looks like we had the third repudiation of SPY $191 and we have the support at the Wednesday gap at $185. But, so obvious! The U.S. dollar weakened. Gold was up another $4.40, continuing its multiday skein higher. Crude oil rose by 60 cents. The correlation between stocks and energy prices was abandoned today. In agricultural commodities, wheat was schmeissed (down eight cents) and corn was flat. Lumber was strong. Bonds reversed slightly to the upside after early morning weakness. Yields were flat to down two basis points across the maturities range. Municipals were well-bid and high yield was slightly lower in price and higher in yield. I am all in Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) and the three-day winning streak stayed intact. I finally like the developing price action. Apple (AAPL) was a feature and I contributed my two bits!  Banks, though well off their highs, were up on the day in a broadly lower tape. Life insurance stocks continued their steady descent; we have nearly 25% gains on MetLife (MET) and Lincoln National (LNC) shorts now. Staples were strong, absolutely and relatively, with gains in Procter & Gamble (PG), 3M (MMM) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). Oils were mixed despite stronger crude prices. Media continued to get crushed; my gains are building up in my short book in this sector, where I'm short Comcast (CMCSA) and Disney (DIS). Old tech was crippled today, led by Microsoft (MSFT) and Buffett fav IBM (IBM). Another new low for iShares China Large-Cap (FXI). A short and on the Best Ideas List.  Autos were stable. Ford (F) was down and General Motors (GM) was up.  I am sticking to these shorts, but trimmed considerably last week. (T)FANG was broadly lower, ex Facebook (see below). I have been warning about this acronym for two months and its underperformance is conspicuous."The Day of Reckoning Near for the (T)FANGs?" from two weeks ago. Amazon (AMZN) was down $18 ("A Long List of Reasons to Short Amazon") and Netflix (NFLX) is really breaking down. I recently wrote up both and shorted -- NFLX is on my Best Ideas List (10/12/2015 at $113).  NOSH was not tasty, with Nike (NKE) and Starbucks (SBUX) weighing it down. CRABBY was not so; it was up across the board, though timidly so. Miracle of miracles!  Potash (POT), Radian Group (RDN) and Twitter (TWTR) showed some life after death today. All higher, but modestly so. eBay (EBAY) missed and guided lower after the close. Shares down by 11%. Mo mo oh no! Biotech was a wreck, with broad losses in the primary and secondary names. iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) was down by almost 4%, led by rollup Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) going down and by Mallinckrodt (MNK). The same sellers in IBB are likely selling (T)FANG. Facebook's results were the "world's fair." Nothing NOT to dislike!
I'm adding Hartford Financial Services (HIG) to my "Best Long Ideas" list at $39.12 a share.

More Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Real Money Pro($)

I'm covering my oil shorts -- Exxon Mobil (XOM) at $75.14 and Schlumberger (SLB) at $64.07 -- and taking both stocks off of my "Best Short Ideas" list.

Columnist Conversations

On a fun note these are my two choices for the best Super Bowl Ads on Sunday: 1. I am biased - as the father o...
The sharp decline in the index in the first half of January and then the reflexive bounce in the last half of ...
Nice work on the diary today, Bret. Tough day but you killed it.
I've always said we should mostly avoid emerging markets and anything non-US-based in our investments. And you...

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