Ford Motor Co (F)

F (NYSE:Automotive) EQUITY
pos +0.00
Today's Range: 11.18 - 11.58 | F Avg Daily Volume: 38,223,300
Last Update: 02/12/16 - 4:02 PM EST
Volume: 0
YTD Performance: -18.03%
Open: $0.00
Previous Close: $11.17
52 Week Range: $10.44 - $16.74
Oustanding Shares: 3,968,630,174
Market Cap: 44,329,599,044
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for F
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
TheStreet Ratings is the source for accurate ratings that you can rely upon to make sound, informed financial decisions. Click here to find out about our methodology.
Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy 6 6 6 6
Moderate Buy 1 1 1 1
Hold 5 6 6 6
Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0
Strong Sell 1 1 1 1
Mean Rec. 2.15 2.21 2.21 2.21
Latest Dividend: 0.40
Latest Dividend Yield: 5.37%
Dividend Ex-Date: 01/27/16
Price Earnings Ratio: 6.07
Price Earnings Comparisons:
F Sector Avg. S&P 500
6.07 9.30 26.86
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
-17.74% -29.40% -11.70%
Revenue -1.90 0.06 0.02
Net Income -55.40 -0.84 -0.46
EPS -55.00 -0.85 -0.46
Earnings for F:
Revenue 144.08B
Average Earnings Estimates
Qtr (03/16) Qtr (06/16) FY (12/16) FY (12/17)
Average Estimate $0.45 $0.56 $1.96 $2.03
Number of Analysts 7 6 11 10
High Estimate $0.56 $0.62 $2.00 $2.25
Low Estimate $0.31 $0.52 $1.87 $1.82
Prior Year $0.23 $0.47 $1.93 $1.96
Growth Rate (Year over Year) 96.27% 19.50% 1.41% 3.46%
Chart Benchmark Timeframe
Average Frequency Indicator Chart
Scale Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands
In the last half-hour we moved off the day's lows. In my Surprise List I warned of The Mother of All Flash Crashes, and the way things are going it could happen at any time, aided and abetted by gamma hedging and risk parity strategies (as was the case in the October 1987 "portfolio insurance"-inspired drop. I am telling you all, kill the quants before they kill our markets. If it occurs it would be a great opportunity for the long term. Message from my opener: rationality wilts and gets sedated when large doses of monetary effort are being administered. Complacency reins and then squadoosh!  Confidence in the Fed and in its policy is abandoned as an "Ah Ha Moment" arrives. In my view we are likely in the major top process that began last spring. And we could be quite close to that Ah Ha Moment. The market today seems to be more than a reaction to the North Korean nuclear test -- it could be the accumulation of eroding technicals and deteriorating fundamentals. Cash is king, as the next few months are uncertain and unpredictable. Little would surprise me. I remain more concerned with return of capital than return on capital. I was a bit unnerved by all the dip buyers today in the business media. I fear there is too much complacency. I also disagreed with the Apple (AAPL) bulls.  The U.S. dollar is weaker today. The bond market was strong. The two-year yield is down by 3 basis point to under 1.00%. The 10-year U.S. note is six basis points lower to 2.18% and the long bond is also down by six basis point to 2.95%. Municipals were very strong, though high yield was a tad lower in price. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) was flat. Oil Vey! Crude is down by two beaners to $34 a barrel. Natural gas is five cents lower to $2.27. Energy stocks were taken to the woodshed. My shorts Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) seem headed to new lows. Gold is up $15 an ounce. Wheat, corn and soybean prices are higher today. Orange juice futures have spiked higher with the cold spell in Northern Florida. (T)FANG held well on a relative basis, owing to the strength in Netflix (NFLX). The other components were lower. I continue to expect (T) FANG to come back down to the soldiers. NOSH got schmeissed, with O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) leading to the downside. CRABBY -- my new (T)FANG -- is lower, with all components but BGB down -- but not exceedingly so. Consumer staples lower. Following lower yields and weak economic data, banks continue to underperform. Life insurance stocks are down by almost 5%; I am short Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET here). All 18 of my shorts on my Best Ideas List (short) are in the black for the first time ever. Autos are getting annihilated after yesterday's schmeissing. I remain short Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) and updated my negative view today.  Today I added small to some beaten-down longs and day-traded

Peak Autos (Part Trois) Real Money Pro($)

The fact that an extended period of low interest rates has "pulled forward" auto sales, profits and stock prices. Who's left to buy cars? Used-car prices that have begun to slip (as per the Manheim Index). This is typically a precursor to lower new-car sales. Incentives that are accelerating -- typically a signpost of a future sales drop and below-consensus industry profits. Anecdotally, too-liberal financing that's begun to lead to rising delinquencies. A ratio of wholesale car inventories to sales that's back to 2008 levels, according to a good analysis by Alhambra Investment Partners. The development of new mobility technologies and autonomous cars, which pose a potential threat to domestic car manufacturers. Yesterday, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer questioned on Twitter whether "Peak Autos" is a consensus view. I don't think Peak Autos is the consensus yet, at least judging by the multiple hedge funds (Greenlight, Moore, Hayman, Glenview, Citadel, Appaloosa, etc.) that are still long on General Motors (or at least were as of
Copper led a small price recovery, though energy prices gave back Monday's gains.

Peak Autos (Part Deux) Real Money Pro($)

"Surprise No. 11: Housing and Autos TankThe housing and auto industries are exposed as Potemkin Villages on weak foundations. Home prices drop by over 5% as affordability gets stretched, mortgage rates climb and unemployment rates bottom out.
Look for market leadership to shift as the U.S. economy plods along.
This is the second installment of my view of the market's major sectors, in which I'll periodically offer my short-term price outlook for each of the market's major groups.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is the latest proof.
Don't catch falling knives, and don't ignore dividends.
They suggest inaction until we get new evidence of the market's direction in 2016.
Apple makes a $20 billion+ acquisition and the shares trade at $90 after two consecutive, large earnings misses. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) merge. Goldman Sachs (GS) significantly bolsters its money management operations by acquiring T. Rowe Price (TROW). Two private-equity firms compete to acquire retailer Macy's (M). Web entrepreneur David Rosenblatt replaces Marissa Mayer as CEO of Yahoo (YHOO).  After three years of overpromising and underdelivering, Douglas Oberhelman resigns as CEO of Caterpillar (CAT). Stung by large losses in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) , Cheniere Energy (LNG), Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and other companies, Carl Icahn steps down and appoints his son Brett as CEO of Icahn Enterprises (IEP). Icahn also meaningfully reduces his investment in Apple in 2016. Rigid drone legislation and the institution of an Internet commerce sales tax stall the share price advance at Amazon (AMZN). Instead, the stock falls by over 30%. Despite a weakening economy (and against conventional wisdom), the high-yield bond sector is among 2016's top-performing asset classes. The spread-widening we saw in 2015's second half ends in 2016's first six months, in part because a sharp oil-price spike results in a brilliant recovery by energy-related junk bonds. 2016's best market sectors: Defense, banks and fertilizers. Defense stocks -- i.e., Lockheed Martin (LMT), Boeing (BA) and Raytheon (RTN) -- soar as terrorism at home and abroad causes a broad response and military initiatives. Bank stocks benefit from a cessation of legal-and-compliance costs and an upward-sloping yield curve, but a second-half U.S. recession cuts into first-half gains. Fertilizer stocks rebound mightily after droughts hit around the world. 2016's worst market sectors: Media, transports (particularly airlines and autos), electrical utilities, pharma/biotech and REITs. Terrorism, an accelerated pace of "cord cutting" and lower U.S. economic activity are a toxic cocktail for Comcast (CMCSA), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Starbucks, Nike and Walt Disney Co. (DIS). (ESPN subs drop below 80 million by year's end.) Prices for theme parks, coffee and sneakers all fall as demand elasticity finally surfaces during the incipient recession that occurs in the year's second half. A rapid drop and improved solar technology pose a competitive threat to electric utilities, while the Clinton administration comes down hard on drug prices. Finally, on REITs -- see the next bullet point! Mall sales traffic collapses. Several mall-based REITs perform the way of master limited partnerships did in 2015. Dividends get slashed in the face of a slowing economy, rising oil prices and the continued Internet inroads that are rapidly changing consumer behavior. Sears (SHLD) finally succumbs to a weaker domestic economy and a deteriorating shopping experience at its stores and goes bankrupt. Icahn accumulates Sears bonds and takes control of the company out of bankruptcy. The aforementioned issues (the devastation of malls and a Sears bankruptcy) precipitate a U.S. non-residential real estate crisis. The South Beach Housing Bubble starts a collapse in high-end real estate prices that extends to New York City,  the Hamptons and Los Angeles -- which fall by 15% on average. Nationally, home prices drop by 5%. Water grows more scarce and a new, powerful "Silicon Valley Northwest" emerges. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation IPOs a home-grown company that develops a breakthrough technology that inexpensively turns wastewater and sewage into potable water. (Bill Gates contributes his entire stake in the company to charity.)  Later in the year, the Gates Foundation announces additional important innovations in health care, medicine and nutrition. Sovereign-wealth funds (which are currently about twice the size of the hedge-fund industry) exit the markets and redeem from hedge funds, exacerbating the market's slide. Hedge funds experience record redemptions and outflows as investors get impatient with high fees and poor investment performance. Several legendary hedge hoggers (each with funds holding assets under management over $5 billion) close shop. The pressure is particularly intense on activist investors who find themselves with large and concentrated holdings. As in Hotel California, "you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave" (without large losses). A few of these former Wall Street titans retire to a new high-end subdivision at Del Boca Vista in South Florida. There are big changes in the business media. CNBC's Joe Kernen joins Maria Bartiromo as an anchor at Fox Business Network. Andrew Ross Sorkin's Showtime series Billions captures seven Emmy nominations, so he departs both CNBC and The New York Times for MSNBC as host of the new Sorkin Report. Carl Quintanilla joins NBC's The Today Show. Seema Mody and David Faber (in a returning role!) replace Joe and Andrew on CNBC's Squawk Box. Kelly Evans leaves CNBC and joins Bloomberg in a dual role, with Tom Keene as a co-anchor of Market Surveillance and as anchor in a new 4 p.m. segment.

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