Allstate Corp (ALL)

ALL (NYSE:Insurance) EQUITY
$62.34
neg -0.64
-1.00%
Today's Range: 61.70 - 62.42 | ALL Avg Daily Volume: 2,889,500
Last Update: 02/11/16 - 10:29 AM EST
Volume: 300,056
YTD Performance: 1.43%
Open: $61.71
Previous Close: $62.98
52 Week Range: $54.12 - $72.51
Oustanding Shares: 387,306,176
Market Cap: 24,404,162,150
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for ALL
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
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Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy 11 10 11 11
Moderate Buy 1 1 1 1
Hold 4 5 5 5
Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0
Strong Sell 1 1 1 1
Mean Rec. 1.76 1.88 1.83 1.83
Latest Dividend: 0.30
Latest Dividend Yield: 1.90%
Dividend Ex-Date: 11/25/15
Price Earnings Ratio: 12.48
Price Earnings Comparisons:
ALL Sector Avg. S&P 500
12.48 12.50 27.19
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
-0.54% -10.09% 39.52%
GROWTH 12 Mo 3 Yr CAGR
Revenue 2.10 0.07 0.02
Net Income 0.00 -0.06 -0.02
EPS -19.40 0.09 0.03
Earnings for ALL:
EBITDA 0.00B
Revenue 35.65B
Average Earnings Estimates
Qtr (03/16) Qtr (06/16) FY (12/16) FY (12/17)
Average Estimate $1.41 $1.04 $5.39 $6.25
Number of Analysts 10 9 12 11
High Estimate $1.61 $1.33 $5.75 $6.75
Low Estimate $1.16 $0.70 $4.78 $5.01
Prior Year $1.46 $0.63 $5.19 $5.39
Growth Rate (Year over Year) -3.42% 64.37% 3.93% 15.93%
Chart Benchmark Timeframe
Average Frequency Indicator Chart
Scale Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands

My Current Take on the Market Real Money Pro($)

I remain bearish and net short as we get ready for another trading week to begin.
The market is almost unplayable for most. A crude reversal likely was the catalyst for the turnaround, as quants ran on board the train from the morning lows. As I mentioned this morning, there is little edge or trend right now. If you trade, keep your value at risk (VAR) low because the large swings can produce big profit/loss changes on relatively small positions. Volatility "cubed" in a market dominated by machines and algos that don't look at income statements or balance sheets and have no concept of intrinsic value. It's in Nowhere Land, at least on a short term basis.  But I am of the view that the primary/intermediate trend is lower -- time to trade and be careful with investments. I still look for a low double-digit decline in the S&P 500 in 2016. Ss (S&P) over Ns (Nasdaq) and Rs flat (Russell). I traded actively today with some success, trying to be opportunistic and trying to embrace panic and euphoria. In other words, "Get It While You Can" is my mantra.  I ended the day market-neutral, shorting SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 40-handle move off the lows ($191.35).  My five largest longs and shorts.  The decline in the value of the U.S. dollar was a key feature of the trading day, though I heard little discussion in the business media. Crude oil reversed dramatically, closing up $2.52 a barrel. Nat gas was unchanged. Gold was up another $13.40 per ouce. Still working on a memo on precious metals. Agricultural commodities: wheat up three cents, corn down two cents, soybean nine cents lower  and oats four cents lower. After a lot of intraday movement, bonds were essentially unchanged, with the 10-year and 30-year up by one to three basis points in yield. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) was down more than a beaner. Municipals were well-bid and closed-end municipal bond funds were up by a few cents apiece. High yield was bid. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was up 38 cents and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was up 12 cents. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) was seven cents to the good. Bank-selling got panicky early in the day, I added across the board. Comerica (CMA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Blackstone Group (BX) and Goldman Sachs (GS) ended the day higher after a pressured morning session. I observed that bank-centric sovereign debt funds might be responsible for the almost irrational selling of late. Here's my Chart of the Day on the aforementioned selling by sovereign wealth funds.  Staples responded well to a lower dollar Energy stocks were flat despite the ride in the resource. Biotech looks awful; they were flat on the day with Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) rallying but Allergan (AGN) declining. Old tech didn't participate in the afternoon rally, but IBM (IBM) rose by $1.50. Alibaba (BABA) and Yahoo! (YHOO) were bad. Retail was mixed, with Macy's (M) a leader to the upside and Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) downside leaders with large dollar drops today. I bought more GS (it rallied by $4 from today's purchase), Morgan Stanley (MS) (big recovery) and BX (nice reversal). (T)FANG is breaking down and rolling over -- a constant refrain of mine over the last four months. Tesla (TSLA) was down $10, Netflix (NFLX) down $1 and Alphabet (GOOGL) reversed most of its previous-day gain. Amazon (AMZN), which I featured today, continues to get schmeissed -- down $21. It is Bill Miller's largest holding (about 10% weighting). but I disagree, respectfully, with Bill. NOSH was broadly lower, led by Starbucks (SBUX) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY). CRABBY looked better, with only Allstate (ALL) and BAC lower. In individual stocks: Procter & Gamble (PG) and DuPont (DD) -- two new Best Ideas List entrants as longs -- were standouts to the upside. Potash (POT) reversed yesterday's loss. Life insurance stocks, including my shorts Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET0, were standouts to the downside (again). I hope you enjoyed
I'm adding Hartford Financial Services (HIG) to my "Best Long Ideas" list at $39.12 a share.
I think a confluence of: 1) a sell-off of the TFANGs to avoid 2015 taxes, 2) a potential Saudi/Iranian conflict, 3) continuing weak domestic and global economic data (i.e. China) and 4) a "marked-up" market contributed to today's schmeissing. Moreover, many players found themselves "offsides" on the expectation of early year strength after two sessions of pronounced weakness. Stated simply, my 2016 strategy is to exploit volati
Surprise No. 16: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) acquires Macy's (M). Surprise No. 17: Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) files bankruptcy. Surprise No. 18: Subscriber growth resumes at Twitter (TWTR
Apple makes a $20 billion+ acquisition and the shares trade at $90 after two consecutive, large earnings misses. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) merge. Goldman Sachs (GS) significantly bolsters its money management operations by acquiring T. Rowe Price (TROW). Two private-equity firms compete to acquire retailer Macy's (M). Web entrepreneur David Rosenblatt replaces Marissa Mayer as CEO of Yahoo (YHOO).  After three years of overpromising and underdelivering, Douglas Oberhelman resigns as CEO of Caterpillar (CAT). Stung by large losses in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) , Cheniere Energy (LNG), Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and other companies, Carl Icahn steps down and appoints his son Brett as CEO of Icahn Enterprises (IEP). Icahn also meaningfully reduces his investment in Apple in 2016. Rigid drone legislation and the institution of an Internet commerce sales tax stall the share price advance at Amazon (AMZN). Instead, the stock falls by over 30%. Despite a weakening economy (and against conventional wisdom), the high-yield bond sector is among 2016's top-performing asset classes. The spread-widening we saw in 2015's second half ends in 2016's first six months, in part because a sharp oil-price spike results in a brilliant recovery by energy-related junk bonds. 2016's best market sectors: Defense, banks and fertilizers. Defense stocks -- i.e., Lockheed Martin (LMT), Boeing (BA) and Raytheon (RTN) -- soar as terrorism at home and abroad causes a broad response and military initiatives. Bank stocks benefit from a cessation of legal-and-compliance costs and an upward-sloping yield curve, but a second-half U.S. recession cuts into first-half gains. Fertilizer stocks rebound mightily after droughts hit around the world. 2016's worst market sectors: Media, transports (particularly airlines and autos), electrical utilities, pharma/biotech and REITs. Terrorism, an accelerated pace of "cord cutting" and lower U.S. economic activity are a toxic cocktail for Comcast (CMCSA), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Starbucks, Nike and Walt Disney Co. (DIS). (ESPN subs drop below 80 million by year's end.) Prices for theme parks, coffee and sneakers all fall as demand elasticity finally surfaces during the incipient recession that occurs in the year's second half. A rapid drop and improved solar technology pose a competitive threat to electric utilities, while the Clinton administration comes down hard on drug prices. Finally, on REITs -- see the next bullet point! Mall sales traffic collapses. Several mall-based REITs perform the way of master limited partnerships did in 2015. Dividends get slashed in the face of a slowing economy, rising oil prices and the continued Internet inroads that are rapidly changing consumer behavior. Sears (SHLD) finally succumbs to a weaker domestic economy and a deteriorating shopping experience at its stores and goes bankrupt. Icahn accumulates Sears bonds and takes control of the company out of bankruptcy. The aforementioned issues (the devastation of malls and a Sears bankruptcy) precipitate a U.S. non-residential real estate crisis. The South Beach Housing Bubble starts a collapse in high-end real estate prices that extends to New York City,  the Hamptons and Los Angeles -- which fall by 15% on average. Nationally, home prices drop by 5%. Water grows more scarce and a new, powerful "Silicon Valley Northwest" emerges. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation IPOs a home-grown company that develops a breakthrough technology that inexpensively turns wastewater and sewage into potable water. (Bill Gates contributes his entire stake in the company to charity.)  Later in the year, the Gates Foundation announces additional important innovations in health care, medicine and nutrition. Sovereign-wealth funds (which are currently about twice the size of the hedge-fund industry) exit the markets and redeem from hedge funds, exacerbating the market's slide. Hedge funds experience record redemptions and outflows as investors get impatient with high fees and poor investment performance. Several legendary hedge hoggers (each with funds holding assets under management over $5 billion) close shop. The pressure is particularly intense on activist investors who find themselves with large and concentrated holdings. As in Hotel California, "you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave" (without large losses). A few of these former Wall Street titans retire to a new high-end subdivision at Del Boca Vista in South Florida. There are big changes in the business media. CNBC's Joe Kernen joins Maria Bartiromo as an anchor at Fox Business Network. Andrew Ross Sorkin's Showtime series Billions captures seven Emmy nominations, so he departs both CNBC and The New York Times for MSNBC as host of the new Sorkin Report. Carl Quintanilla joins NBC's The Today Show. Seema Mody and David Faber (in a returning role!) replace Joe and Andrew on CNBC's Squawk Box. Kelly Evans leaves CNBC and joins Bloomberg in a dual role, with Tom Keene as a co-anchor of Market Surveillance and as anchor in a new 4 p.m. segment.
Bearish
Oct 16, 2015 | 7:10 AM EDT
ALL was downgraded to Underperform, William Blair said. Company will likely fall short of earnings expectations in the coming quarters....
Bullish
Sep 22, 2015 | 7:56 AM EDT
ALL was initiated with a Buy rating, Sterne Agee CRT said. $70 price target. Company should see higher rates and cut costs. 
That is the question.
Bullish
Aug 10, 2015 | 7:47 AM EDT
ALL was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. $70 price target. Stock is attractive, following a 10% pullback. 

Columnist Conversations

Here is my cost basis in today's biotech buys: XON $29.99 SAGE $29.09 PTLA $29.29 OTIC $13.17 NVAX $4.53 NK...
And I am really happy that we are friends again after my particularly misplaced comments a few weeks ago. Live...
Another rocky start to another day of trading. Agree with Doug Kass, biotech getting very oversold. Big Biot...
Timing not that far off. I have it now as both a short-term short, but also setting up as a potential longer t...

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