Allstate Corp (ALL)

ALL (NYSE:Insurance) EQUITY
$65.36
pos +0.31
+0.48%
Today's Range: 65.01 - 65.58 | ALL Avg Daily Volume: 2,349,200
Last Update: 05/02/16 - 4:02 PM EDT
Volume: 2,004,543
YTD Performance: 0.00%
Open: $65.54
Previous Close: $65.05
52 Week Range: $54.12 - $70.35
Oustanding Shares: 378,300,428
Market Cap: 24,570,612,799
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for ALL
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
TheStreet Ratings is the source for accurate ratings that you can rely upon to make sound, informed financial decisions. Click here to find out about our methodology.
Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy 11 11 11 11
Moderate Buy 1 1 1 1
Hold 4 4 4 4
Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0
Strong Sell 1 1 1 1
Mean Rec. 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76
Latest Dividend: 0.00
Latest Dividend Yield: 0.00%
Dividend Ex-Date: 12/31/69
Price Earnings Ratio: 0.00
Price Earnings Comparisons:
ALL Sector Avg. S&P 500
0.00 12.90 12.90
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
GROWTH 12 Mo 3 Yr CAGR
Revenue 1.20 0.10 0.02
Net Income -23.80 -0.10 -0.02
EPS -19.40 0.10 0.03
Earnings for ALL:
EBITDA 3.57B
Revenue 35.65B
Average Earnings Estimates
Qtr (03/16) Qtr (06/16) FY (12/16) FY (12/17)
Average Estimate $0.86 $1.00 $4.75 $6.19
Number of Analysts 10 9 11 11
High Estimate $1.53 $1.27 $5.18 $6.65
Low Estimate $0.57 $0.70 $4.10 $5.00
Prior Year $1.46 $0.63 $5.19 $4.75
Growth Rate (Year over Year) -40.89% 58.91% -8.48% 30.26%
Chart Benchmark
Average Frequency Timeframe
Indicator Chart Scale  
Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar weakened. Our currency has had a big run and I wouldn't be surprised if some profit-taking occurred, as mentioned yesterday. Bonds bolted higher in a flight to safety. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) was up $1.70. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note dropped by seven basis points to 1.68% and the long bond declined to 2.51%. For some time I have emphasized that stock investors should heed the message from the bond market, both here and abroad. I continue to see a 35% chance of a garden-variety recession in 2016-17 and a 15% chance of a deeper recession. Municipals were well-bid and closed-end municipal bond funds continued higher. High yield was junky. However, Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) was up a few pennies. Gold rose by $18 to $1,242. Crude oil declined by a quarter to $39.60.  Nat gas rose by eleven cents. Agricultural commodities: wheat -5.25, corn +3.50, soybeans -4.00. Banks got whacked big-time. As you all know, I sold out all of my longs about a week ago as I am fearful that earnings estimates are too high. I lowered my earnings-per-share expectations by 5% on Monday. We could see a buying opportunity on the next leg lower (if it occurs) in response to disappointing first-quarter earnings. Spreads, loan losses and weak capital markets activity will likely be the culprits. Brokerages got ripped apart, especially my lone short Goldman Sachs (GS), which I just put on Tuesday and Wednesday. GS was down $4.82 and Morgan Stanley (MS) down 62 cents. GS has some fans on the site, but I respectfully disagree. Energy stocks got taken to the woodshed. Schlumberger (SLB) down $1.15 and Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 95 cents. Life insurance, the object of my disaffection, faces huge reinvestment problems and today's bond rally hit the sector badly. Lincoln National (LNC) was down $1.12 and MetLife (MET) down $1.14. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) got hit again. Retail was weak, led by my sole short position Nordstrom (JWN), down $2.25 -- it also has been endorsed on the site.  Autos continue to founder -- Ford (F) down 30 cents and General Motors down 50 cents; they continue to act like value traps. Peak autos is my continued mantra. Old tech got hit, led down by IBM (IBM), off $1.80, Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and Cisco (CSCO). Consumer non-durables got hit. My long Procter & Gamble (PG) was down 70 cents and short Coca-Cola (KO) was down 47 cents. Biotech reversed yesterday's spectacular gains; iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) was down $4.80. My biotech basket was mixed to down. Old media suffered -- Comcast (CMCSA) and Disney (DIS) down for a second day in a row as a result of management issues. (T)FANG got whacked, led by Amazon (AMZN) and Telsa (TSLA) -- each down by more than $8. NOSH threw up. Home Depot (HD) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) were on the downside. CRABBY was down, led by drops in Alleghany (Y) and Allstate (ALL). In individual stocks, DuPont (DD) is $1 to $2 within my buy zone. Here is some good stuff on RealMoneyPro today: Ben "Goldfinger" Cross on "Gold Benefits as Stocks Weaken"  Rev Shark on "My Kind of Market Could Be Setting Up"  S
The U.S. dollar weakened today. Government bonds dropped by two to three basis points in yield. The 10-year yields 1.83% and the long bond 2.66%. Municipals were flat, as was high yield. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) was up a few pennies. Crude oil rose by two cents to $34.68. Nat gas was two cents lower. In agricultural commodities, wheat rose by 8.50 and oats 7.00, but soybeans were only up 2.00 Corn was flat. Shares of Potash (POT) recently have benefited from higher ag prices. Gold ramped to $1,258, up $16.40). Silver was up 15 cents. Financials were firm, and bank stocks slightly higher (I reduced positions yesterday). Comerica (CMA) looks to be breaking out from its trading range, up $1.25 today. Life insurance stocks were well-bid. I shorted MetLife (MET) and Lincoln National (LNC) yesterday. Brokerages were stronger, led by long holding Goldman Sachs (GS). Morgan Stanley (MS) was flat. Old tech was mixed, with IBM (IBM) up and Microsoft (MSFT) down. Biotech returned to underperformance today, with Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) and Allergan (AGN) very weak. I sold my entire Biotech Basket yesterday for a nice gain. In the basket, Aerie Pharmaceuticals (AERI), down 17%, and Celgene (CELG), down $1.71, led on downside while Interxon (XON) continued to gain after yesterday's outsize move higher. Retail was broadly higher; Best Ideas List stock Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) was up almost 3%. Macy's (M) is back near its high and Best Buy (BBY) was trending higher as well. Media is well-bid. My shorts Comcast (CMCSA) and Disney (DIS) are higher. Consumer staples were mixed; Procter & Gamble (PG) was higher but Kimberly-Clark (KMB) lower. Autos are strong today, with Ford (F) up 25 cents and General Motors (GM) up 80 cents. (T)FANG might be flailing. Only Tesla (TSLA) is up on the day, but the losses have been contained. NOSH lower, led by Nike (NKE) to the downside. CRABBY was well-bid, with only Alleghany (Y) lower. Twitter (TWTR) continues its rise from sub-$14; it's now over $19. Starbucks (SBUX), a short, is off 70 cents. Blackstone Group (BX), though slightly lower, is holding on to its nice recent gains.  I re-shorted SLB and XOM and placed these energy names on my Best Ideas List as shorts. I sold Allstate (ALL) after a $9 move up from the market's recent lows.  I have increased my net short exposure today.

All Out of Allstate Real Money Pro($)

I've eliminated my long of Allstate (ALL).
I've sold off my longs of Allstate (ALL) and Hartford Financial (HIG) this morning.
The low $70s is our upside target.

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly. Crude oil increased by 66 cents to $34.41. Gold was flat. Agricultural commodities saw wheat, soybean and corn trade up. Bonds got blasted, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) down $2.50) -- an important feature of the day. Longer-dated yield increased by about eight basis points and the yield curve, as an aid to bank stocks, steepened. Municipals got hit. High yield continued to rally after starting the day lower. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB), the object of my affection yesterday (I noted last week's junk bond inflows) and almost every day, rose 31 cents to $12.73. I highlighted BGB yesterday as a favored idea.   Banks were the world's fair after several days of underperformance. The sector recorded a 4% to 5% gain, highlighted by the three money center banks, Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). I have seven banks stocks on my Best Ideas List.  Brokerages and private equity were also strong, with Goldman Sachs (GS) up $4.50, Morgan Stanley (MS) up $1.25 and Blackstone Group (BX) up $1.25. All three are on my Best Ideas List.  Insurance stocks ripped higher. I am offering Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET) to re-establish my shorts. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) was up in my face but Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) and Allstate (ALL) are trading well. Retail was strong, led by Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) up $1.40 and Macy's (M) making a new recent high near $44 a share. Consumer staples were led by Procter & Gamble (PG), up $1, Colgate-Palmolive (CL), up $1.65, and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) +$1.35. Old tech prospered, with IBM (IBM) up $3.40; Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) were up nearly 3% each. Autos were strong, but no better than the opening. I shorted General Motors (GM) and Ford (F). Here is my rationale for "Peak Autos." From Peter Boockvar: According to Ward's Automotive, February vehicle sales totaled 17.43mm SAAR vs 17.46mm in January and below the estimate of a lift to 17.70mm. After 3 straight months of 18mm+ in September thru November, the last 3 months have been in the 17mm range. The question of peak auto sales is becoming more front and center as via easy access to credit we've pulled forward a lot of potential future sales. Over the weekend the WSJ reported that in Q4, "auto loans that are 30-89 days overdue rose to 1.82% of total auto loans...the highest level since 2011." The article stressed that this ratio reflected auto loans kept on bank balance sheets which are typically the better credits as opposed to those off loaded into an ABS. For ABS, Fitch last week said that "delinquencies of over 60 days on securities backed by subprime auto loans hit almost 5% in January. That is the highest since September 2009 and close to the record peak hit that same year." Biotech even rallied after conspicuous recent underperformance, up 4% with Allergan (AGN) and AbbVie (ABBV) leading. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) even reversed but still was in the red. My Biotech Basket was broadly higher, led by Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), Celgene (CELG), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA), Otonomy (OTIC) up 8% and Interxon (XON) up $2.50. (T)FANG, ex Tesla (TSLA) -- Citron report hurt -- was broadly higher.   NOSH's four components drove higher, too. CRABBY broadly up, with C and BGB leading. Serial portfolio laggards are beginning to catch up -- Radian Group (RDN) up 5% and Potash (POT) up 50 cents. Apple (AAPL), a short, caught up and is trading close to par, even though Cleveland Research has cautious comments. I identified DuPont (DD) as one of my favorite stocks of the year, and it rose by $2 today, to a new recent high. Net net, I added small to my net short exposure, but I added to longs and to shorts at the same time. I did average in further (on a scale -- cost under $21) on ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS). Here is some good stuff on RealMoneyPro today: Jim "El Capitan" Cramer's market map.  Sham Gad on value investing.  RevShark on a
I added to two lagging financials today: Allstate (ALL) and Hartford Financial (HIG).
The S&P 500's fair-market value is approximately 1,860. The Federal Reserve won't increase the fed funds rate this year. The likely 2016-17 economic outlook is somewhere between "muddle along" and a "garden-variety recession." As such, I've boosted my view of the energy and consumer-staples sectors to "Neutral" from a previous "Negative." I've also improved my take on retail and health care/biotech to "Positive" from an earlier "Neutral." Basic Materials/Industrials The materials sector has recently rallied significantly from its near-term lows. This has coincided with a broad sense that commodities' extended drop might be coming to an end, and that global economic growth -- although substandard by historic comparisons -- will muddle along. Still, I wouldn't chase basic materials and industrials after their sharp gains of the past two weeks. After all, I still have a lower-than-consensus forecast for domestic and global growth (see my recent column Fire and Ice). Other unknown factors include future levels of both the U.S. dollar -- as a strengthening currency is competition costly -- and energy prices, as costlier oil and other commodities could be headwinds to margins. So, let's stay alert for those. The slowing, fragile trajectory of global growth in a world that's held hostage to terrorism, other potentially upsetting factors and "black swans" will also likely continue to pressure industrials. That said, several factors -- including the emergence of more activist investors and the sector's weak share prices vs. year-ago levels -- could limit industrials/materials' downside. I recently added cyclical exposure with a

Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

"Who's on First?"  -- damned if I know! The market trended higher from the get go. Machines and algos in full gear. At 230 p.m. ET the S&P was at its high, with a gain of  nearly 35 handles on little news. My guess, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at $193.20, is that we are at the high for the day. I continue to scale into SPY short. The first back-to-back-to-back 1% gains for the S&P since October 2011. Lesson learned (again!)  Avoid the self-confident in view. So many were confidently bearish last week. Today, they forgot or swept their views under the rug. This condition has no value to us, and increasingly talking heads should be ignored.  The U.S. dollar strengthened. Consumer nondurables were strong nonetheless, with broad gains in Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Procter & Gamble (PG). Bonds fell again in price. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is down to around $129; it was $136 a few days ago. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note rose by seven basis points, and so did the 30-year bond. Municipals were also hit, as were closed-end municipal bond funds. The junk market served up a good course -- iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was up 76 cents and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was up 32 cents. But, another modest rally for Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB), which just regained what it lost yesterday. Crude oil spurted by $1.72 to $30.76. Natural gas rose by four cents. Energy stocks gushed, with Schlumberger (SLB) up $1.30) Gold was up $1. Banks continued their winning streak. Speculative buy Deutsche Bank (DB) was a standout, up 4%. However, there was some weakness -- Wells Fargo (WFC), Comerica (CMA), Southern National Bancorp of Virginia (SONA) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) were lower. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was teetering after its big run, up only about a quarter. Retail still is strong, with broad-based gains in Home Depot (HD), Macy's (M), Best Buy (BBY) and Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) -- again! Biotech broke out and is the world's fair. Our speculative stocks in the basket spurted higher. However, Gilead Sciences (GILD) was lower on the day. Old tech thrived, with IBM (IBM) up $4, Intel (INTC) up 3%, Cisco (CSCO) up 2% and Microsoft  (MSFT) up 3%. TFANG was broadly higher, led by Telsa (TSLA) and Facebook (FB). NOSH was tasty, too, but not as much as its high octane brethren, with modest gains in Starbucks (SBUX) and HD. CRABBY was six for six higher, led by Citigroup (C). Twitter (TWTR) got jiggy, up $1.14, but I have been disappointed before in this name. DuPont (DD) was strong, and I pared back. PG was up $1.15 (a favorite). Potash (POT) benefited from the rotation back into cyclicals. iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) rallied for a second day in a row; I remain short and would add up to another 3% to 4% to my short.  My

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

Markets were higher from flagpole to that's all today. At the close, day's high. Rs (Russell) and Qs (Nasdaq) over Ss (S&P). The correlation of crude oil prices to the markets fell apart today. Heavily shorted stocks fared well despite the crude oil price fall and continuing worrisome economic signposts.  The U.S. dollar strengthened somewhat today. More economic data points indicate a slowing rate of domestic economic growth. However,  retail numbers provided a sigh of relief and the sector rebounded again today. Crude oil soured -- down 34 cents to $29.10.  Natural gas hit new lows to $1.90. Gold got pummeled, falling to $1,203 and was down $35.60 on the trading session after an extended period of gains. (I spoke to Boca Biff -- will hold off until tomorrow). Agricultural commodities soared: wheat was up $6, oats $3, corn $4 and soybean $6. Lumber was up $5. Bonds gained another three to four basis points in yield. TLT, which I shorted at $135.60 -- my short Trade of the Week that closed for a profit -- ended down another $1.20 today   Municipals flatlined and closed-end municipal bond funds were a source of funds,with a couple down by more than 1%. High yield was higher modestly for the second day in a row, but Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) was distressing. (And I don't know why, to be honest). I added ... again.  As I noted, retail, banks and biotech gains were impressive. Citigroup (C), one of my fav money centers, has put on nearly $4 from Thursday's close -- a good thing. Brokerages were stronger on a JPMorgan upgrade; Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are on my Best Ideas List.  Retail was led by the bounce back of remodelers. Transports were up 2%. Nice rally in autos; I closed out my shorts late last week but plan to re-short on another 10% rally. Same applies to life insurance stocks; I covered the balance of my Lincoln National (LNC) and MetLife (MET) shorts last week. Longs Allstate (ALL) and Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) rallied. Old tech was the world's fair, with IBM (IBM), Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) providing the oomph. Is biotech forming a nice bottom? Allergan (AGN) and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) were stronger and iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) was up by nearly 3%. In my Biotech Basket, Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), Celgene (CELG), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Intrexon (XON) and Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA) were standouts. TFANG was strong , except Facebook (FB), which was down a beaner. I added Amazon (AMZN) short to my Best Ideas list.  NOSH was tasty, with all four components higher. Nike (NKE) and Home Depot (HD) were featured. CRABBY was mixed, though five of six were up on the day. Alas, longs Potash (POT), Radian Group (RDN), Procter & Gamble (PG) and DuPont (DD) were punk performers. Twitter (TWTR) ontinues to advance after an outsize gain on Friday. Fossil (FOSL) was up after the close on an earnings beat, with shares up 15%. I closed out my SPY and IWM long rentals for nice gains. I end the day slightly net long in exposure after selling out ETFs and adding to selected longs.

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