Roger Arnold is the chief economist for ALM Advisors, a Pasadena, Calif.-based money management firm specializing in income-generating portfolios. Concurrent with his other business responsibilities, Arnold was a radio talk show host for 15 years. He focuses on behavioral economics and chaos theory, better known as the "butterfly effect." He explains the relationships between political, economic and social systems, and how they are all reflected in the financial markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and real estate.

Consumer confidence is up, but savings is down, which will curb first-time buyers' housing demand.
Trump is correct in saying trade agreements need to be renegotiated.
And it's not because of China manipulating its currency.
Trump's stimulus plans could be funded by a new government-sponsored enterprise.
Modifying the popular write-off would be good for the economy.
To understand the potential impact of Trump's policies, it is critical to understand how sovereign taxes really work.
What the Trump team sees as currency manipulation is really a breakdown on the U.S. side.
Traders, investors see demand as a function of confidence rather than capacity.
In essence, Congress is telling Trump he's going to have to lie to them if he wants them to pass his budget.
Cuts in fiscal spending and corporate taxes aren't stimulative in an economy that lacks demand.

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