Roger Arnold is the chief economist for ALM Advisors, a Pasadena, Calif.-based money management firm specializing in income-generating portfolios. Concurrent with his other business responsibilities, Arnold was a radio talk show host for 15 years. He focuses on behavioral economics and chaos theory, better known as the "butterfly effect." He explains the relationships between political, economic and social systems, and how they are all reflected in the financial markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and real estate.

A rate hike could prompt borrowers to unwind carry trades, leading to a vicious asset deflationary cycle.
The market seems unaware of the risks of central bank impotency.
The Fed chair called for fiscal stimulus and asked FOMC members to not oppose the next decision to 'punt' on rates.
It's understandable why questions would arise about whether directors' principal motivations are more personal than professional.
Even if the Fed hikes, odds are long-end yields and mortgage rates will decline.
A Fed rate hike is in play, but also more stimulus.
During a crisis gold is just as likely as any other asset class to be sold off.
Even long-term investors in gold are given pause to reconsider their logic.
Challenges are causing leaders to make decisions that are irrational and counterproductive.
The dichotomy between how the CEO represented the bank and its ethics versus how he actually managed the culture cannot be starker.


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