Roger Arnold is the chief economist for ALM Advisors, a Pasadena, Calif.-based money management firm specializing in income-generating portfolios. Concurrent with his other business responsibilities, Arnold was a radio talk show host for 15 years. He focuses on behavioral economics and chaos theory, better known as the "butterfly effect." He explains the relationships between political, economic and social systems, and how they are all reflected in the financial markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and real estate.

Trimming the Fed's balance sheet raises questions about what FOMC members know about the economy.
How to look at defence contractors in light of global geopolitical tensions and economic realities.
But not for the reasons you might expect.
U.S. consumption is constrained because income and job growth is constrained.
Trump's infrastructure plans will hike technology investment, which will boost domestic labor's productivity.
The world's economies and companies need a strong U.S. in order to continue to grow.
The Trump plan is for the world to be weaned off U.S. support.
Trump's plans should give some stocks a lift.
Should a U.S.-China trade war occur, the U.S. should nurture its relationship with Russia.
There is no pent-up consumer demand, and bond yields are headed south.

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