Roger Arnold is the chief economist for ALM Advisors, a Pasadena, Calif.-based money management firm specializing in income-generating portfolios. Concurrent with his other business responsibilities, Arnold was a radio talk show host for 15 years. He focuses on behavioral economics and chaos theory, better known as the "butterfly effect." He explains the relationships between political, economic and social systems, and how they are all reflected in the financial markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and real estate.

Until leadership focuses consistently on real banking, my view of the stock will remain negative.
These firms will tell us if energy's 'contagion' is spreading.
If that's true, then there is no reason to try to anticipate the future.
The result is balkanization as capital flees developing countries.
As wealthy countries withdraw capital from developing countries, an important flow is being interrupted.
The exodus of foreign capital from China has caught the attention of world government leaders.
| Jan 27, 2016
| 4:07 PM EST
I am very interested in reading your analysis of BAC whenever it is convenient for you. I'm sure the subscribe...
| Jan 27, 2016
| 3:41 PM EST
All; I'm a little back logged with inquiries concerning yesterday's column, as well as a few of the recent pas...
But the Fed's own economists keep coming up with this stuff anyway.
It's not because of the bank's changes, but the lack of them.

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What the market bloodbath reinforces: always hold a realistic view of the future (dare I say, conservative).
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