Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $6 billion investment partnership. Before that he was executive senior vice president and director of institutional equities of First Albany Corporation and JW Charles/CSG. He also was a General Partner of Glickenhaus & Co., and held various positions with Putnam Management and Kidder, Peabody.Expand

Kass received his bachelor's from Alfred University, and received a master's of business administration in finance from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in 1972. He co-authored "Citibank: The Ralph Nader Report" with Nader and the Center for the Study of Responsive Law and currently serves as a guest host on CNBC's "Squawk Box."Collapse

Those who minimized the political, economic and market impact of the Brexit vote and the conditions that led up to it were terribly wrong and non-attentive to history. (U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his resignation.) Those who rejected the notion that we were in a "Bull Market in Complacency"
Here's how I intend to play the wild session ahead.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -- our Trade of the Week -- which we shorted at $209+ a share. The PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ). The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). My other plans: I'll be covering my short of the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU). I might also take off my small short of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), even though "lower-for-longer" interest rates could doom bank-industry earnings. That said, my XLF moves will depend on how much the financials drop today. I'm also taking SPY, QQQ, IWM and EWU off of my "Best Short Ideas" list, due to changes in those ETFs' risk-vs.-reward quotient this morning. Given the likely rise in volatility (not to mention the possible market chaos that we might see), I plan to use an opportunistic trading strategy today. I'll place both my long and short investments on the back burner and won't increase my long-term commitments. Instead, I plan to opportunistically trade on the long side (an area where I'm not currently well represented), but will be so only on a short-term trading basis for now. That said, it's conceivable that good longer-term long opportunities will arise over the next few weeks or so. The Bottom Line Uncertainty, risks and rewards will all abound today, but I want to err on the side of conservatism. I'll harvest some of my short gains, then approach the market in an opportunistic manner on both the long and short sides. I'll be back to market neutral by the time the opening bell rings today, and then I plan to trade aggressively. Most people other than the most facile and quick traders should probably just sit on the sidelines and watch today's acti

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar weakened. Oil rose by 97 cents to more than $50 a barrel. Gold fell by $10 and closed at $1,260. Again, the $1,300 level has proven to be a formidable resistance point. Agricultural commodities continued for the second day in a row to be under pressure: wheat -4, corn -5.5, soybean -14 and oats unchanged. Lumber +2.50. Bonds fell in price and rose in yield, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) down $1.50. The 10-year U.S. note yield increased by nearly six basis points to 1.745%.The long bond's yield also climbed by nearly six basis points to 2.55%. The 2s/10s spread expanded by two basis points to 96 basis points. Municipals got hit and closed-end muni bond funds were lower in price. However, the high-yield bond market was strong, with iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) up 62 cents and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) up 26 cents. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) rose by nine cents to $14.46 a share. Banks gapped higher, as rates rose. Stress test results shortly. Brokerages were strong. Insurance stocks rose, with large gains in Lincoln National (LNC), MetLife (MET) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). My long Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) was up $1. Retail was broadly higher but marginally so. My two shorts underperformed; Foot Locker (FL) was lower and Nordstrom (JWN) was up only slightly. Old tech was stronger, with IBM (IBM) up $2.50. Auto stocks rose after being weak for several trading day. Energy stocks followed the commodity higher. Ag equipment was strong, led by a $1.80 gain for Caterpillar (CAT). Media underperformed with small (pennies) gains at Comcast (CMCSA) and Disney (DIS). (T)FANG rallied from morning weakness. Amazon (AMZN) led the parade, but Tesla (TSLA) remains under pressure. In individual stocks, Potash (POT) gained a beaner and Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) and HIG almost did as well. Twitter (TWTR), a recent buy, closed over $17 a share and now is up more than 15% from my buy about a week ago. My fav large-cap, DuPont (DD), was up $1.20 and looks like it has a mission to reach $70 a share. Here are some value-added contributions on our site: Jim "El Capitan" goes beyond Brexit.  Mark Sebastian also chimes in on Brexit.  Carley Garner on gold.  Rev Shark on Friday's "action." 
Apropos to my previous post, this just in from Byron Wien:
As we approach the Brexit referendum vote I wanted to remind everyone of one of one of my 15 Surprises for 2016 (written back in December):
Lower sales revisions back three months make clear something is awry with the Census Bureau's Syllabus of Errors. In fact, based on May's NSA results today's SAAR headline should have been in the low 530k's, which it will probably be revised to next month; YTD New Home Sales gains now stand at only 6%, paltry considering the massive tailwinds this year vs last year's headwinds; The leftover 2015, weather, and rate-plunge pulled-forward demand effect was in play but peaked last month, which gives me some clarity into Existing Sales as well; Median and Avg prices chunked lower – May mm median decline the largest on record -- erasing most all this year's gains in one fell swoop.  Last month people were cheering historical highs. In fact, if May prices hold it means they have been mostly flat for nearly 2-years now.  The peak in average prices in Oct 2014 remains in place; Coming up with even greater upside catalysts than the sector has gotten over the past month to carry stocks higher in the summer and fall doldrums seems unlikely. Detail May New Home "Sales" (actually contracts to close on a house within the next week to year) came in at 551k, down 11% mm and up 8.5% yy. Further, April was revised lower from 619k to 586k, or by 5.3%. This came on top of Feb and March being revised lower by 22k units. The three months of lower revisions reduced the May New Home Sales YTD gain to 6%, a far cry from what paid forecasters thought gains were and paltry considering the massive tailwinds in Q1 2016 vs the headwinds of the year before. However, based on the past 8 years of recession-level 500k or less New Home Sales, 551k is "strong" I suppose (not absolutely or historically, however). But, I argue the front-loading and sharp downward revisions bode well for my "pulled-forward season" thesis rather than some sudden, durable step-up in macro housing demand.  And the term "pulled-forward" implies a give-back at some point, which I believe will occur beginning in the summer season and lasting through next year. The Real, NSA Data Because it's clear in the past several months of Census Bureau's SAAR results that something has gone awry with their Excel formulae, let's look at the real numbers. On a real basis, May New Home Sales were 51k sales nationally vs 47k last year. But, this May had one extra day than a y

A Complete Waste of Time Real Money Pro($)

Business TV's endless conversations about the Brexit vote are beginning to look like the Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy -- powerless, with little value-add.
I've been aggressively adding to my longs of Twitter (TWTR) and Hartford Financial (HIG) recently, and it's all been "so far, so good."

Fertilizer Stocks Turn Green Real Money Pro($)

Fertilizer stocks are gaining ground today on word of a possible deal between the Republic of Belarus and Russian potash giant Uralkali.


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