Shorting This Market Not Worth the Risk

 | Dec 12, 2012 | 2:56 PM EST  | Comments
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Ben Bernanke's press conference is causing the market to take a closer look at the Fed moves and that isn't a positive. The critics are picking on a number of issues, but it is the unemployment target of 6.5% that is suffering the brunt of the abuse. The market acted poorly after the last Fed action, which is making it easier for the bears to fade this move as well.

If the indices had not been walking higher for a couple weeks now on optimism about a fiscal cliff deal, it would probably be easier for us to gain further traction on the Fed. But the market is just a bit too overbought and lacking in momentum to sustain the early euphoric response.

The big danger of trying to short this market right now is the likelihood of a fiscal cliff deal. I definitely would not feel safe carrying a large amount of short exposure overnight -- especially as the deadline gets closer. I believe that some sort of deal will be made and that the market is going to see a substantial spike higher when that happens.

While it is very easy to understand the bear case, the potential for positive news flow is just too much of a risk. On the other hand, it sure isn't easy adding new long exposure because  many stocks are running into overhead resistance on declining volume.

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