We're in Suspended-Disbelief Mode

 | Dec 06, 2011 | 3:51 PM EST  | Comments
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They weren't going to let it come in. We get rumors of bigger backstops in Europe, something that we would have systematically poo-poohed two weeks ago, and now we believe them and think they will get us out of the jam.

We hear interviews with European officials who tell us not to worry, that the worst is over, and we now believe them, where a fortnight ago we would have laughed at them.

So, futures now move in lockstep with the positive news flow. It's amazing what a couple of weeks and a couple of dollar swaps from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (dollar swaps, by the way, that aren't even being used) can do to change the atmosphere.

I say you have to go with the flow until all the shorts are squeezed and we get an authentic piece of bad news that is interpreted negatively, not just rumors of good news that are taken at face value.

I know that skepticism is killing people right now. We are in suspended-disbelief mode.

The only way to know when it is over is to wait for that piece of bad news and see how we react. Right now, people are trusting and not even bothering to verify.

That's precisely when the complacency builds after a big run. And they won't let the shorts be brought in without tremendous pain, and the pain will only grow worse before we begin to sell off again.

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