The Week Ahead: The Holiday Kickoff

 | Dec 01, 2013 | 8:00 PM EST  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

tgt

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wmt

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bby

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aro

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expr

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ges

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aeo

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five

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josb

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avgo

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ovti

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aapl

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unfi

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kr

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DIA

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cwst

Not only was last week the kickoff of the year-end holiday season, but it also marked the end of trading for November. Following a month in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3% and the S&P 500 climbed 2.4%, the two indices are up 22.8% and 26.6%, respectively, year to date. While those results are impressive, it's the Nasdaq Composite Index that truly stands out: Through the end of November, the index has risen an impressive 34.5%.

The tallies are still coming in, but after the newfound Thanksgiving Day shopping bonanza among such retailers are Target (TGT), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Best Buy (BBY), as well as the more traditional Black Friday, it appears the big winner was online shopping. Preliminary results from market researcher ShopperTrak indicate foot traffic climbed 2.8% vs. last year on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, bumping sales up 2.3% to $12.3 billion over those two days. Data from Adobe Systems, which analyzed 180 million visits across more than 1,000 U.S. retail websites, suggests that online shopping on Thanksgiving Day itself totaled $1.06 billion. That strong showing offset the 11% drop in Black Friday traffic and 13% Black Friday sales drop, per ShopperTrak.

Lower Black Friday traffic was not that surprising, given one forecast from Nielsen, which that found 85% of consumers planned on skipping the stores on Black Friday this year. Instead, nearly half of consumers (46%) said they would shop online this Cyber Monday, compared with 30% in 2012. Keeping in mind that larger shift toward online shopping, retailers are lining up deals to snare consumer dollars. On Tuesday, we should get a sense as to how successful those efforts were.

Turning to the rest of the week, we'll continue getting caught up on several economic data streams that have been missing since the government shutdown. We'll also get the latest purchasing managers indices from China, the eurozone and several other geographies, including the U.S. -- as well as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report. It wouldn't be the first week of a new month without the job-creation figures, and data for November will be hitting the tape from several sources during the week. Remember that October's nonfarm payrolls data were far stronger than expected, and that means we'll need to keep a watchful eye on revisions for the month, as well as for September.

Early in the week, earnings from retailers are set to continue from the likes of Aeropostale (ARO), Express (EXPR), Guess? (GES) and Shoe Carnival (SCVL), followed by American Eagle (AEO), Five Below (FIVE) and Jos. A Banks (JOSB) later on. On the technology side of things, Avago Technologies (AVGO) and Omnivision (OVTI) are also scheduled to issue results. Given Avago's position on several Apple (AAPL) products, Wall Street will be listening closely to the current-quarter outlook of the former.

I'll also be watching several companies this week for clues into food-inflation prices, both on the input side and consumer-facing one: United Natural Foods (UNFI), Kroger (KR) and Diamond Foods (DIA). Lastly, Casella Waste's (CWST) should provide some insight -- we can use its earnings and outlook to get a bead on any pickup in the economy.

Here's a more detailed look at what's on tap in the week ahead:

______________

Economic Data

Monday, Dec. 2

  • HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
  • Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI
  • J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI
  • Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index (November)
  • Construction Spending (September)
  • Construction Spending (October)

____

Tuesday, Dec. 3

  • Auto and Truck Sales (November)

____

Wednesday, Dec. 4

  • HSBC China Services PMI
  • Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
  • Markit U.S. Services PMI
  • J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Purchase Index (Weekly)
  • ADP Employment Change Report (November)
  • New-Home Sales (September)
  • New-Home Sales (October)
  • ISM Services Index (November)
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book (December)

____

Thursday, Dec. 5

  • HSBC Emerging Markets Index
  • Challenger Job Cuts Report (November)
  • Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly)
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -- Second Estimate (Third Quarter, 2013)
  • Factory Orders (October)

____

Friday, Dec. 6

  • Employment Report (November)
  • Personal Income and Spending (October)
  • Michigan Sentiment Index (December)
  • Consumer Credit (October

_______________

Earnings Reports

Monday, Dec. 2

  • Envivio (ENVI)
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD)
  • Shoe Carnival (SCVL)

____

Tuesday, Dec. 3

  • Bank of Montreal (BMO)
  • Isle of Capris Casinos (ISLE)
  • OmniVision Technologies (OVTI)
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI)

____

Wednesday, Dec. 4

  • Aeropostale (ARO)
  • Avago Technologies (AVGO)
  • Brown Forman Corp. (BF.A)
  • Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)
  • Emcore Corp. (EMKR)
  • Express, Inc. (EXPR)
  • Guess? Inc. (GES)
  • Mattress Firm Holding (MFRM)
  • New York & Co. (NWY)
  • Powell Industries (POWL)
  • Verint Systems (VRNT)

____

Thursday, Dec. 5

  • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
  • The Cooper Companies (COO)
  • Dollar General Corp. (DG)
  • Diamond Foods (DIA)
  • Esterline Technologies (ESL)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Finisar Corp. (FNSR)
  • Jos. A. Banks (JOSB)
  • Kroger Co. (KR)
  • Pacific Sunwear (PSUN)
  • Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
  • TD Bank Financial (TD)
  • Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA)
  • Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS)

____

Friday, Dec. 6

  • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
  • Big Lots (BIG)
  • Casella Waste Systems (CWST)
  • Genesco Inc. (GCO)
  • Johnson Outdoors (JOUT)

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