The Daily Dose: Brain Dump

 | Nov 21, 2013 | 9:00 AM EST  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

low

,

hd

,

jcp

I am preparing to embark on a complete written research production fest for the coverage universe I hold so dear for clients. Goal: to pen 14 works of written art... inside of three days (in addition to running a business and wearing makeup).

Up until now, I have been sending post earnings flash notes and quick takes from our first rounds of exec calls, but I really want to start anew on two stinker recommendations and reassess 12 mega winners with an eye towards the first quarter of 2014. So, before I disappear into a hole, I wanted to shed some preliminary light on the note gathering process.

First, a basic framework on recent Fed member statements is a must-have as we are fully aware, it's their hot air keeping indices near round, sexy numbers.

Let's be real: the only reason retail sales didn't fall off a cliff last month (and the market alongside it in response) is because retailers have entertained a new level of promotions to lure in traffic and convert. Why? Mentally digest this trusty mall traffic chart by the good team at Goldman Sachs. Higher stock prices are apparently the magic elixir for NOT sending people into the malls (and don't blame this on mobile merchandise consumption, discounts are picking on websites too)...

Fed Key Comment Archive

Bernanke-Helicopter-ish

  • "We are still far from where we would like to be, and, consequently, it may be some time before monetary policy returns to more normal settings."

Bullard-Dovish

  • ''You have to take the inflation target seriously, defend the target from the low level.'' 
  • A strong jobs report, I think, would increase the probability some for a December taper."

Evans-Dovish

  • People need to understand that the Fed is "here to deliver" on both goals, and probably continue to buy bonds until the total purchases under the current bond-buying program reaches about $1.5 trillion.

Fed Minutes-Hawkish

  • Policymakers expected economic and labor market reports to "warrant trimming the pace of (bond) purchases in coming months."

Battle: Home Depot vs. Lowe's

These two homemade charts make a couple things clear: (1) believe none of the hype spewed by execs at Lowe's (LOW) on their earnings call (I personally had no idea what they were talking about most of the meeting, it was that jargon-packed); (2) you do not need to own both home improvement retailers on the housing recovery thesis; and (3) if you don't believe the Fed is tapering anytime soon, Home Depot (HD) should be in your portfolio off the 52-week highs of the year.

J.C. Penney, Now What?

This is name under review. I am taking a methodical approach here as the Wall Street story on J.C. Penney (JCP) is far removed from the financial statement story. Truthfully need to ponder long and hard. I will say that if you are a trader, there is a probably a little juice left to squeeze from this rock on the long side.

In the meanwhile, read this...it's informative and I wrote it last night. 

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