The Week Ahead: Retail Looms Large

 | Nov 17, 2013 | 7:00 PM EST  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

csco

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wmt

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kss

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urbn

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bby

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dks

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tjx

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jcp

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anf

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fl

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crm

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p

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hd

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de

We've had another frenetic week on Wall Street. More issues about Obamacare have popped up, Fed chief nominee Janet Yellen was grilled in front of Congress, we saw the usual economic data and, of course, we were privy to more corporate earnings. The stock market continues to put in fresh highs, and that means many more investors are finally getting back into the market. To professional investors like you and me, that situation should serve as a warning. It reminds me of an old Wall Street adage: The smart money buys stocks when they're declining and are poised for a turnaround, whereas the dumb money jumps in after the market has already rallied -- and is due for a pullback.

Last week, in between study sessions for the Series 65 exam, I took a break to attend the Cato Institute's 31st Annual Monetary Conference, titled, "Was the Fed a good idea?" As you can imagine, it was an interesting event. Some of the participants pointed out that, if the Fed continues its sugar-stimulus ways, there will be severe repercussions down the line -- particularly for the U.S. dollar.

As we all know, that Federal Reserve's bond-buying has allowed the federal government to live beyond its means. Based on last week's confirmation hearing for Janet Yellen, it seems the central bank's stimulus efforts will remain in force for a while longer in one form or another. At least in the short term, that means the stock market will continue to inch its way higher even amid last week's cuts in the near-term outlooks among yet more companies, such as Cisco Systems (CSCO), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Kohl's (KSS).

The coming week will start with slow with a slow drip of economic data until Wednesday and Thursday, when we'll be hit with October retail-sales data and several flash purchasing managers index readings from around the globe. We'll also get the latest figures from the U.S. producer price index and consumer price index. It seems likely that overall inflation remained tame in October, given the move in gas -- which is now down 7% year over year, per the most recent numbers from the Energy Information Administration. While holiday retail-sales forecasts have been trimmed back of late, one silver lining lies in the potential positive impact that lower gas prices will have on consumer wallets.

From where I sit, the big news this week will be not only be in earnings from a number of retailers, but also in their outlook on the current quarter. As mentioned, Wal-Mart and Kohl's offered weak views last week, and in the coming days we'll get the latest from Urban Outfitters (URBN), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), TJX (TJX), J.C. Penney (JCP), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Foot Locker (FL) and others. Aside from the tone of the quarter, I'll also be listening to see what the mix is shaping up to be between in-store and online sales.

Aside from retail, we'll be hearing from several other heavyweights, including Salesforce (CRM), Pandora (P), Home Depot (HD) and Deere (DE).

Here's a more detailed look at what's on tap in the week ahead:

____________________

Economic Data Ahead

Monday, Nov. 18

  • Markit Global Business Outlook
  • Net Long-Term True Interest Cost (TIC) Flows (September)
  • National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (November)

____

Tuesday, Nov. 19

  • Employment Cost Index (Third Quarter of 2013)

____

Wednesday, Nov. 20

  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Index (Weekly)
  • Retail Sales (October)
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) (October)
  • Existing Home Sales (October)
  • Business Inventories (September)
  • Crude Inventories (Weekly)
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes (October)

____

Thursday, Nov. 21

  • HSBC China Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
  • Markit Eurozone Flash Composite PMI
  • Markit U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly)
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) (October)
  • Philadelphia Fed Index (November)
  • Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly)

____

Friday, Nov. 22

  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

______________

Earnings Ahead

Monday, Nov. 18

  • Active Power (ACPW)
  • Brocade Communications (BRCD)
  • Salesforce.com (CRM)
  • ChipMOS Technologies (IMOS)
  • Tyson Foods (TSN)
  • Urban Outfitters (URBN)

____

Tuesday, Nov. 19

  • AutoNavi Holdings (AMAP)
  • Best Buy Co. (BBY)
  • Campbell Soup (CPB)
  • Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
  • The Home Depot (HD)
  • Jacobs Engineering (JEC)
  • SemiLEDS Corp. (LEDS)
  • The TJX Companies (TJX)
  • The Valspar Corp. (VAL)

____

Wednesday, Nov. 20

  • ADT Corp. (ADT)
  • Deere & Co. (DE)
  • Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR)
  • J.C. Penney Co. (JCP)
  • Lowe's Companies (LOW)
  • The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM)
  • Staples Inc. (SPLS)
  • Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

____

Thursday, Nov. 21

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
  • Aruba Networks (ARUN)
  • The Buckle (BKE)
  • The Bon-Ton Stores (BONT)
  • dELIA*S Inc (DLIA)
  • Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • GameStop (GME)
  • Gap Inc. (GPS)
  • Intuit Inc. (INTU)
  • Jack in the Box (JACK)
  • Limited Brands (LTD)
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL)
  • Pandora Media (P)
  • Patterson Co. (PDCO)
  • Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
  • Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
  • The Fresh Market (TFM)

____

Friday, Nov. 22

  • Ann Taylor Stores (ANN)
  • Casual Male Retail (DXLG)
  • Foot Locker (FL)
  • Hibbett Sports (HIBB)
  • PetSmart (PETM)

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