A Market Chilled by Disappointment

 | Oct 23, 2012 | 11:30 AM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

hog

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pii

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whr

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coh

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goog

No real hurry here. Yesterday's blink-of-an-eye rally will discourage people from participating in a similar venture, so any lift, I believe, will be met with selling.

Think about why we are having selling. Earnings? Disappointing. China? Disappointing. Europe? Extremely disappointing.

Only the U.S. is OK, and OK doesn't cut it unless you are in the pure consumer category.

There, however, it's totally nutty. Whirlpool (WHR), Coach (COH), Polaris (PII), Harley-Davidson (HOG) -- they are all great. If you were to ask me, "Name me four companies that make products you can skip," it would be those.

We are in a very strange market. Most people are in a total funk about the U.S. economy. Yet the consumer is really the only game in town.

That said, I think the market's mind has gone from being ready for Europe and China to catch on fire and join the U.S. consumer to asking when the U.S. consumer will start failing like the rest of the world.

What you see right now is the glass getting half-empty after being half-full before Google (GOOG) reported.

I think people will now wait to be sure that the glass isn't more than half-empty after seeing more of the earnings season.

Too soon to nibble unless the yield is greater than 3.5% or a stock has come down to its lows and might just make some strategic sense to buy. 

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