Trust the Move

 | Oct 19, 2011 | 9:25 AM EDT  | Comments
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Who do you trust? Yesterday, The Guardian, a U.K. paper of sometimes excellent reliability (yes, I mean that cynically), broke the most important story of this particular crisis era --  that the powers that be are now getting a two-trillion-euro package ready to put an end to this madness.

You get a couple of trillion and you have the firepower to take a Lehman scenario off the table and maybe even avoid guarantees and ring fences at the worst, meaning the most levered of the French banks that have been at the fulcrum of the difficulties.

You saw a 1% move when that story broke. I am sure there were brief gains ahead of that story as the people who told The Guardian must have told the others.

Within a few minutes of that story breaking, Dow Jones was out with a strong refutation. That refutation was picked up and disseminated even faster than the story from The Guardian.

If the latter story is true, then the move up was nonsense. We should repeal it. I find it ironic, because so much was based on that move including a radical reversal of the charts, as my friend Bert Dohmen indicated in my "Off the Charts" segment last night on CNBC, a segment that said we are now out of a bear market and into a bull move until the end of the year.

Which do you believe?

Frankly, what I don't believe is that Dow Jones can unequivocally deny The Guardian story. I know that it is inconceivable that any reporters would be in shape to get a hard denial out of European leaders immediately. What did Dow Jones do? Call Angela Merkel and ask, "Is The Guardian story made up?", and then get a fast "Nein" on the wire?

The governments of Europe know that two-trillion euro can go a long way. I know Merkel's been playing Lucy to the Charlie Brown football kick. But I thought yesterday was different.

In other words, I am going with The Guardian story, even though I normally trust Dow Jones more. It was just too authoritative and the denial too pat.

I think the rally was for real.

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