Apple Leads Tech's Bounce

 | Oct 15, 2012 | 4:11 PM EDT
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Apple (AAPL) can rally! Look at that. Can you believe it? That's amazing, just amazing. I didn't know it was possible!

Of course, I am being facetious. Apple's been one of the greatest performers of all time. But these last few weeks, beginning with all of the problems with Apple Maps, there's been nothing but pain.

Now, the pattern's been pretty ingrained. You come in in the morning and you see Apple up 3 or 4 points. Then an hour before trading begins, it is usually up two or three points. Fifteen minutes before the opening, and Apple's up a buck.

The stock then stays up a buck for about 15 minutes before it starts the swoon. And once that swoon started, there was really no breaking it -- until today. The stock hit $624 and went down a quick 10 points. Then it hit a technical level people liked, and then it bounced and bounced hard, and actually went to where it had been at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

What's going on besides the technicals? I have a weird thought but I think it is right. Here's the deal: If you take a look at what is running today, it's the consumer spending stocks, particularly the suppliers to stores: PVH (PVH), V.F. Corp. (VFC) and Ralph Lauren (RL). Why not? The retail sales were very strong this morning. What's the most popular item selling at retail right now? How about an iPhone. Sure, we know about all of the selling "shortfalls," the issues with the maps, the purple haze or whatever it was, and the reasons why people aren't buying them. Except they are buying them, they remain on allocation, much longer than we have seen before, and they now have a supplier that just picked up billions of dollars from Softbank to subsidize iPhones all they want.

People keep asking me if the market is oversold. It's not. Plenty of segments are, though, and the worst has been tech.

Today tech bounced, and it was led by Apple. It's hard to believe it will only last for one day.

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