Time to Question the Consensus on Europe

 | Oct 12, 2011 | 12:41 PM EDT  | Comments
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Unanimous.

There is a unanimous opinion that Greece will default, that it will be ugly, that it will cause the dominos of other countries to fall.

There is a unanimous opinion that neither the French not the Germans have the ability to ring fence or recapitalize their banks as they are way too big vs. the GDPs of their own countries.

There is a unanimous opinion that Lehmans cannot be avoided and that even a Citigroup thesis or a shotgun thesis will not work.

There is a unanimous opinion that disaster beckons and the dominos will bring down the whole market.

I say this because of the negative feedback I have been getting from people when I said that the plan for a plan will work, although I fully expect massive nationalizations and a wipeout of both bond and stock holders for the many banks that are in trouble.

I can't find a soul who agrees with me. Except for, perhaps, Mr. Market, as Doug Kass likes to say.

To me that means that the unanimity itself has to be questioned.

To be continued ... And I sure hope this thesis is kicked around here because I maintain that no more Lehmans means no more systemic risk, even if it means that there are ratings changes galore.

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