Cyclicals Showing Signs of Life

 | Oct 12, 2011 | 7:24 AM EDT  | Comments
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cmi

,

aa

Still 34% bullish. But now 46% bears. Up a percent for the bears! That's right, despite an 11% gain in the averages, the Investors Intelligence poll shows an increase in bears.

Flabbergasting. How much this market is hated by everyone!

Isn't that the only realistic takeaway? Even in the dark days of March 2009 when we started to put on some points, people suddenly lurched bullish.

Not this time.

I am a big believer, as I said yesterday, that it will be difficult to break out from the top end of the range.

But I am also mindful of what Tim Collins said about Cummins (CMI) last night, Cummins being a prime example of what loses people so much money and seemed like a performance destroyer: If it can clear this resistance, it could really make up some ground.

Last night's Alcoa (AA) quarter would say that it can't happen. But the number of bears that we have basically says that these stocks, which are the risky stocks that are most hated, are still underowned going in to the end of the year.

If Alcoa shakes out no one, it should embolden people to come back to Cummins and the like. So today I am watching the industrials, seeing if they can hold up under Alcoa's shortfall and betting that the place where the big bears are most nervous about -- the cyclicals -- can continue to climb.

Bears vs. Cummins.

I am going with Cummins ... and Collins, too!

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