Alcoa (AA) is saying buy Boeing (BA). It is saying autos are strong. It is saying China is weak but going to get strong, so buy China. It is saying trucks are horrible, which Cummins (CMI) confirms. It is saying construction is tepid. It is saying Europe is horrid -- no kidding. It is saying that the real market for aluminum is different from the financial market for aluminum.
Most of all, for Alcoa, is saying that it is close to making money under any circumstances because of changes in working capital and the closing of high cost smelters.
I loved this report for its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) view of Alcoa but I am confused about the lack of free cash flow. I need to know more. I need that question answered.
This is a moment where you have to think that Alcoa is one of the great calls for a worldwide comeback or not. There is not a chance of a takeover here. There is no chance for a breakup as there was a superior analysis of why that won't work.
Go listen -- it's a tell-all.
