The Daily Dose: Beating Burnout With Photos

 | Oct 04, 2013 | 10:30 AM EDT
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Hey, here is some full disclosure: I am kind of sort of burnt out. After getting home late from taping this segment on Wednesday, which kindly suggested caution, I just couldn't seem to find my A-plus game on Thursday and then again, today.

There is the government shutdown, the Twitter S-1, the D.C. shooting, an Institute of Supply Management report -- wowzers, there has been so much to synthesize! I am can only imagine what the average investor is dealing with. Wait. I could as I talk with many of them each and every day.

When I get burned out, I visit chart porn land. Looking at colorful pictures surprisingly triggers new ideas to be researched when full mental strength returns.  Honestly, it is a bit easier to present than data ripped from a spreadsheet. To end the week, I want to tell a couple quick stories using various photos.

Memo to Perma Bull Dip Buyers

More like dip chewers that are having their judgment clouded by a heaping dose of nicotine in the right cheek. Is the information below priced into stock valuations? Come on. If a dip chewer says "no, it doesn't have to be priced in, a debt ceiling deal will be reached", I would reply "should at least a portion of the risk be priced in upfront, because it's not!"

  The Snakes Are Leaving

Here is the game I see being played, per the usual. Books are being talked in the open in order to alleviate growing fears of the less-sophisticated investor, at the same time as the books of the big guys are being told to lighten the load (can see this in the accelerated selling intraday). Then, weakness is bought to prevent the Average Joe investor from smelling fear on the part of the whales. The bottom line is that this type of deceptive action (deceptive to the untrained) tends to occur before the trapdoor on the market is opened. Buyer beware today if there are continued credible signs of no deal to solve the government shutdown.

What you are looking at in the picture: the wide range between session lows and highs, and then the deceptive buying into the close.

 Quote of the Week

"I am quite concerned on the bottom dropping out from the under the market into the weekend if the government is not reopened."  Me, RealMoney October 3, 2013

J.C. Penney

The story that flowed on Thursday was the widening of the credit default swap spreads on J.C. Penney (JCP). Well, yeah, that is to be expected, provided one wasn't in the clown car of analysts that only until recently downgraded their ratings to hold (yes hold!!!!) from buy!

On Thursday, I reached out to my contact at J.C. Penney, wanting to discuss a couple of unnerving things we are seeing in store tours. He usually gets back to me quickly, but he has not replied yet. The perceptive analyst in me views that as a red flag, regarding what we are detecting in the stores and the likely news in coming weeks.

 Note that I am a stock whisperer and really try to analyze all clues. Picking stocks ain't entirely about making love to spreadsheets -- at least it never has been to me.

Columnist Conversations

We will take off some more risk, bank some winners SOLD PG OCT 90 CALL AT 3.3 (in at 2.90) ...
After a very calm and sedate period of volatility which saw the VIX fall not only to all time lows but had a r...
today is a good day to lighten the load and take some positions off the table. SOLD WB OCT 85 CALL AT 11 (i...
I reached out last week to my close friend Ken Shreve, who is a prominent writer for the IBD.  I asked Ke...



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