This Rally Leaves Me Cold

 | Oct 04, 2011 | 6:35 PM EDT  | Comments
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Phony.

Yeah, phony. We got oversold. We didn't need to know we were down 20% from the highs to be able to pronounce this the first bear market spike. They happen just like this. Outrageous gains in a matter of minutes. People caught leaning the wrong way. Market's been down for days.

Bingo.

Of course all phony rallies look like real ones. We find out after they started why they are happening, usually something pretty fanciful that people are going to say could be substantive.

Got that.

So we end up with the usual fake-out.

We might get some reverberations tonight because an up U.S. might cause a bounce in Asia. But Europe? We can't really influence it anymore.

The one thing that I do expect will happen is that we will begin to see the winners in the declining commodity world begin to assert themselves. That should start this week.

Otherwise, if there could be a more classic squeeze up than this one, I don't know what it would look like.

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