Numbers Have to Come Down

 | Oct 03, 2013 | 6:43 PM EDT
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Well, at least it is at last sinking in. Numbers have to come down. That's what happens in these situations. You want to outrun the companies. Get ahead of the cuts.

That's why the shutdown has been so Cinderella so far. The analysts haven't been willing to slash numbers.

I think United Technologies (UTX) comments are making them think twice.

They've not been willing to downgrade because if you downgrade that says "OK, I am betting it's a longer shutdown." Then you come in on Monday and the shutdown is over and you look like a real doofus.

But as the rhetoric gets worse and each side does nothing but badmouth the other side, you have to start thinking, what does October look like for my company?

I asked Dominion (D), maybe the best, most-forward-thinking utility out there with lots of business not far from the D.C. area, whether business could be hurt from the shutdown and they were distinctly wait-and-see about it. They weren't dismissive of the question.

To me, this is a moment when it is worth the gamble of betting that numbers are too high, especially after the rally we have had .

No, I am not saying "cut numbers on Celgene (CELG) because of the FDA and the possibility of a slower review time." I am saying that it would be perfectly reasonable to cut numbers in any tech stock that does a lot of business with the federal government because I have to believe that the longer the shutdown, the lower the numbers. 



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