Industrials Aren't Making It Easy

 | Sep 25, 2012 | 6:27 PM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

cat

,

cbe

,

etn

,

bmy

,

kft

No, it didn't feel good going home long. No, unless you owned Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) or Kraft Foods (KFT), you feel mauled.

But you also have to admit that until you saw the riots in Spain, the bulls looked like they could break the losing streak and start some serious end-of-the-quarter-and-month mark-ups.

Didn't happen.

I admit I am torn here. We have been buying a mixture of the Bristols and the Emerson Electrics (EMR), pretty much on a 2-to-1 basis. But the Emersons can take you down a lot more on the 1 than Bristol can take you on the 2.

But the industrials are so, so far behind the market that I would rather be a buyer into the weak August of Emerson than a buyer up here in Bristol after it has had a bit of a run. I like Eaton (ETN) in the middle of its 52-week range ahead of the Cooper Industries (CBE) deal closing more than I like Procter & Gamble (PG) at its 52-week high.

Of course, the issue is, how much performance are you willing to lose to catch a fourth-quarter rally in the industrials off of good news?

Today, the answer was none. But how much was Spain and how much was Caterpillar (CAT)?

I bet 65%-70% was Spain and the rest CAT-like ramifications, and if we don't get another CAT and don't get more protests, then we will start climbing by the end of the day, a notoriously difficult day to judge because of the Yom Kippur holiday. 

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