We're Seeing More Than Complacency

 | Sep 23, 2013 | 6:14 PM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

goog

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nflx

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amzn

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agco

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de

It's not just complacency. It's an actual bid underneath. This market tried several times to take out the mid-morning low, and it just couldn't, despite some nasty declines in some high-profile anointed stocks. Google (GOOG), Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) all got hammered good. Meanwhile, the financials couldn't get out of their own way.

And yet the S&P 500 just wouldn't give up the ghost. Is that complacency? Or is that a sense that things are better than we think, as long as rates go down? You get rates back to 2.65% on the 10-year, and you seem almost guaranteed to get a rally.

I see lots to not like in this market. I keep thinking about how the volatility index (the VIX) is so low compared with the other times we have gotten into a Washington showdown. I keep thinking that the earnings of the domestic companies so far just aren't that good. I keep thinking about how overbought we are.

But we are in a tale of two markets, and those that deal with China and Russia and Europe -- like AGCO (AGCO), a company I have on tonight -- are doing well, even as Deere (DE), still a chiefly domestic company, isn't.

Yep, can't call it complacency. Just another day where "the programs" said to buy stocks when interest rates fell, and that contained the losses to levels that weren't severe, and certainly not severe enough for my Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust to put any sidelined money to work. 

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