Sovereign Crisis Impact Overblown?

 | Sep 19, 2011 | 7:28 AM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

cp

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prgo

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bbby

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nke

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mcd

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cost

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hsy

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amzn

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kmb

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Some things never get old, or discounted for that matter. That's how I am feeling about the sovereign debt crisis.

You put it past you for a couple of days and a lot of money is made. Not a little, but a lot. And then it comes back and bites you again because it can't be solved easily. The fact is, though, we are beginning to recognize that it will be solved, it just won't be solved well and in a way that is satisfying to anybody.

In other words, get used to it, it will play out, it will hurt people BUT IT MIGHT NOT HURT AS MANY STOCKS AS YOU THINK.

I am taking this posture because I like to see how players react to the same stimuli over and over. In other words, whenever the futures are down off of Europe do the same people who missed the rally big hold their hands up, point fingers and say "I told you so?"

That's been the pattern every time.And then, after a couple of days, we make some pretty darned good moves, UP, not just down. As I looked over the charts this weekend I was struck by how many of them have been soaring, just doing fabulously. I am talking about major moves in anything with a yield as well as, last week, anything tech. I am talking about rallies in stocks like Colgate (CP) , Perrigo (PRGO), Bed Bath (BBBY), Nike (NKE), McDonald's (MCD), Costco (COST), Hershey's (HSY), Amazon (AMZN), Kimberly (KMB), Procter (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO), just to name a few. These rallies that cannot be cynically dismissed by people who say "I told you so."

All I can tell you is I wish I owned all of them for my trust because it would be hard NOT to be having a good year. Some have just rallied back to the lines of resistance, like the cyclicals, the transports. Others, like the utilities, have acted like junior growth stocks, the moves have been so terrific.Put simply, there is enough there that is working to call into question those who are saying "here we are again, be prepared to lose it all back" because that would require some horrendous selling, not just the futures down as large as they are

 Last Monday I said you could short and short all strength, and then Tim Geithner told us that there will be no more Lehmans. The press reports would have you believe he was booed from the stage and Lehman here we come. I think, though, you have to think of all these pieces as one puzzle: an intractable problem that is being worked out sloppily and terribly while many stocks work their way higher right through it because we are NOT going to have a Lehman moment where gobs and gobs of capital will be destroyed.

That's what you have to focus on today in the opening. That's what you have to focus on when the futures take out whatever key levels that technicians are thinking about. Although I bet that almost no one will.

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