Looking for Good Conclusions

 | Sep 19, 2011 | 6:51 PM EDT
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We never draw any good conclusions from anything. Take oil. If oil is really coming down, as we heard endlessly today, do you know how good that would be? It would be such a major breakthrough. So many companies would be able to beat their estimates if that happened. It would be extraordinary.

Or when gold goes down, as much as I love the precious metal -- and I do -- when it goes down we should be thinking, "Hey, things might not be that bad after all." Or, "Maybe there is a plan that can save Greece and, while costing a ton, keeps things from cascading into a depression."

Or when copper goes down, maybe thinking, "China uses 35% of the world's copper and if it is going down maybe Chinese inflation will be going down with it."

Nobody says this stuff.

Which is why it is so darned gloomy all of the time.

Here's the best way to look at it: Two of the best-performing stocks in this market are V.F. Corp. (VFC) and Polo Ralph Lauren (RL). They are so, so good because cotton is a huge part of their costs, and cotton's gone down so big in the last year that the first-quarter comparisons will be remarkable.

Think about VFC and RL to remedy a "woe is me" philosophy toward every data point. Because VFC and RL have been two of the best performing stocks I have ever seen.


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