Market Isn't Out of the Woods

 | Sep 15, 2016 | 11:46 AM EDT
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A bounce in oil, continued strength in Apple (AAPL) and leadership in FANG names is helping the market this morning. Breadth has been steadily improving and is hitting 2-to-1 positive.

Bonds are weak again but chances of a Fed rate hike this year have fallen to under 50%. It is a bit puzzling that bonds continue to trade poorly, especially after the weaker-than-expected retail numbers this morning.

While we have a better tone of action this morning and key underlying support at S&P 2119 is holding, this market is not out of the woods. This is what we need to turn back up, but the risk of another rollover is high and the chances that 2119 doesn't hold are also high.

Keep in mind that the FOMC decision is Wednesday and there is going to be endless discussion about that over the next few trading days, even if there is little chance of a rate hike. That policy statement is going to be of particular interest.

The whole concept that a dovish Fed is always a market positive is being called into question, which helps explain the action in bonds. We'll discuss to a much greater degree in front of the Fed, but this market doesn't look like it is as willing to celebrate a delay in rate hikes if it means we have a lousy economy.

I don't have a lot of trades going at the moment, but Airgain (AIRG) indicated it will announce earnings next week and is strong on the news; SunOpta (STKL) , which I highlighted recently, is breaking out; Facebook (FB) continues to be my favorite big-cap name; and TPI Composites (TPIC) , which is my favorite smaller name, is flat despite news of an Amazon (AMZN) wind farm. (Apple and Facebook are part of TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS portfolio. Amazon is part of the Growth Seeker portfolio.) 

Stock picking is a bit tougher but at least the market is holding where it needs to for now.

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