Twitter Deal Will Be a Circus

 | Sep 13, 2013 | 6:55 AM EDT  | Comments
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The Twitter deal will be a circus. Everyone will want some. All I ask is that the people who run the deal not screw the public. Can that be done? Can they make it so it isn't Facebook (FB)? So it is not Groupon (GRPN)? Can they do it so there are winners all around?

These are my first thoughts about a company that I admire and use around the clock -- literally around the clock given my insane non-sleeping habits.

As my friend Jon Steinberg, the COO of Buzzfeed, said on a fortuitous booking tonight on "Mad Money", Twitter is the train tracks for the new media, it is what all of the news and the ads and the social commentary run on. It is what advertisers want as much as they want Facebook.

Now Twitter's filing early. We don't know much about the company yet. But we do know this. There is a price for everything and the price for social media has been wrong pretty much every time. Even with the best deals there has been a better price than the opening price on the deal about 90% of the time although rarely do you get one where the price is below where the deal actually came.

Steinberg said tonight we're all guessing about what Twitter's worth. I agree. I had it pegged at $20 billion though. Why $20 billion? Because if it were much less than that I believe the company would have been bought already by someone else.

That's the only back of the envelope calculation I want to make.

One more point: Apple (AAPL), it is still not too late to buy Twitter. $20 billion's a rounding error. Force the error.

Random musings: Congrats to our own Rocco, who will be on "Squawk Box" this morning talking Twitter.

Still liking that call about Mercadolibre (MELI) by Herb but disagree in criticisms of Ulta Salon (ULTA).

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