Luck and Jobs

 | Sep 04, 2013 | 11:00 AM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

mu

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sndk

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bby

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f

The winners keep catching breaks.

Micron's (MU) been a monster, but it cooled amid talk of capacity being added in DRAMs and Flash. But then you take out a big factory with a fire own by Hynix, a big competitor, and all of the people who thought it was rolling over, especially the shorts, get a huge jolt and it goes higher. This story feels a lot like the Thai flooding that took out capacity for the disk drives. I think that Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron can go higher. 

Best Buy's (BBY) similar. How many people hated this stock going into this year? How many people had given up on this company? Today, it's Merrill Lynch going to Hold from Sell. What's amazing to me is that these people all held out for so long with their negative views. It just never came in.

Or how about Ford (F)? This stock's been lagging badly of late as people figured rates are going higher here and sales in Europe aren't that strong. After this number today and the raising of production, you have a stock that now just looks like it's recharging.

This process of stocks that have been pretty much written for the moment and then coming back on good news is very bullish. But also VERY lucky. If you get rates to stabilize and job growth remaining positive, then you can stay lucky.

I am not sure about the bonds. I think that the bond sellers can come in on a dime and bang down whatever they want to. They are absent today despite strong data.

We've got a tug of war between rates going higher and job growth. The latter makes it so the hard-goods sales of Best Buy can still be so strong that the sellers have to change their tune.

Job growth makes it so that auto sales can stay strong. You need a car to keep that job, or those two jobs or three.

Lots of luck and lots of jobs vs. bonds and Washington. They just keep going at it. When the government looks functional -- as it does on Syria -- and bonds are tame, as they are today, the luck and the jobs win out.

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