Kohl's Trading Range Shifts

 | Aug 15, 2017 | 8:04 AM EDT
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We last checked the fitting rooms and charts at Kohl's (KSS) a month ago, and said that "...KSS could remain stuck in a trading range between $42 on the upside and $35 on the downside for the near to intermediate term." KSS briefly moved above our upper band of $42, but it recently gaped lower and is testing the 50-day moving average line.

Let's check all our charts and indicators this morning to see if we to change our view of a trading range market for KSS.

In this updated daily bar chart of KSS, above, we can see that earlier this month prices surged to $44 and stayed above the declining 200-day moving average line for a couple of sessions. Volume was heavy, as prices gaped lower last week. KSS is testing the rising 50-day moving average line.

The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line had improved from early June until the gap day. The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator crossed to the downside from above the zero line. This is typically considered a take profits sell signal.

In this weekly bar chart of KSS, above, we can see that prices tested the declining 40-week moving average line during the week, but did not close above it. The weekly OBV line shows some limited improvement in July, but nothing sustained. The weekly MACD oscillator is in a cover shorts mode.

In this Point and Figure chart of KSS, above, we ignore volume and there are no gaps in the chart. The overall picture of the chart is a base pattern with an upside price target of $58, assuming there is a bullish breakout. Prices are in a down column of Os and could decline to $36.38 within the base pattern.

Bottom line: KSS is likely to continue to trade in a sideways market, but the new parameters are going to be $44 on the topside and $36 on the downside. A weekly close below $35 would be bearish, and a weekly close above $45 would be bullish.

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