The Experts Make a Monster Mistake

 | Aug 14, 2014 | 7:23 PM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

mnst

,

ko

,

gmcr

,

jcp

Sometimes Wall Street research can be so worthless. Honestly, one month ago I recommended that people buy Monster Beverage (MNST), suggesting that Coca-Cola (KO) would be interested in the company and that the business was doing quite well, better than people thought. Almost immediately, Morgan Stanley and UBS both downgraded it, casting doubt on both the business and the speculation that I had made so much of.

Instantly, the stock gets hammered, and I redouble my efforts and source it through again and check my contacts, and they still say I am spot on. And I think to myself, what the heck do these analysts know that I don't?

I was racking my brains earlier this week, trying to think where I went so wrong.

I wasn't wrong at all. They were. They were clueless. Coca-Cola is all over this one, not unlike the way they were all over Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, now known as Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), another stock that all the smart guys said was in big trouble.

Frankly, I think these analysts who downgraded it have to explain their work the way I have to explain why I think I am right and didn't back down but said that they were wrong at the time.

Now I know nothing will happen. They will fight the Coca-Cola news and say it is nothing in the same way the people who hated Green Mountain -- not Keurig -- stayed hating it until they were pretty much rendered moot. Or they will quietly upgrade it back if the stock slips down on some sort of geopolitical tension.

Somehow, though, there has to be a little more accountability to the system. Instead, there's none.

Just doesn't seem right, but it's never been right, so I guess it's just grousing. I sure as heck though hoped you listened to me, not them. And when I get it wrong, I own it, as you know here, because I have called myself out many at time when others simply refuse to admit they ever get anything wrong .

Random musings: Congrats to a couple of hot hands, Bob Lang and Dan Fitzpatrick, for nailing this high-growth and biotech rally and J.C. Penney (JCP) respectively. Nice work, gentlemen!

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