Tighten Your Seat Belt on Alaska Air

 | Aug 11, 2017 | 11:18 AM EDT
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We haven't discussed Alaska Air Group (ALK) for several months, but the advice we gave wasn't bad: "With momentum slowing and the lack of strong buying from the daily OBV line, we get a message that ALK can pull back or decline in the short to intermediate term. I would anticipate that ALK can revisit the $90-$85 area in the weeks ahead. This anticipated weakness could be a buying opportunity, but we don't want to get a non-refundable ticket just yet."

Looking at the daily bar chart (below) we can see our flight plan for ALK was pretty good. ALK declined to around $85 and made a rally to $95, the lower end of a $95-$101 area of resistance from February and March. Let's see if a new flight plan is needed.

In this updated daily bar chart of ALK, above, we can see prices are testing the support from May in roughly the $85-$82 area. ALK is trading below the declining 50-day moving average line and the still rising 200-day line. Further price weakness in ALK could generate a dead cross with the more sensitive 50-day average declining below the 200-day line. The daily On-Balance Volume (OBV) line did not improve much, if at all, from the May low, telling us that buyers of ALK were not aggressive in adding new longs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator gave a take-profits sell signal in early July and slipped below the zero line by the end of July for an outright sell signal.

In this updated weekly bar chart of ALK, above, we can see prices have been below the 40-week average line for three weeks. The weekly OBV line has turned down for the second time this year and suggests that sellers are more aggressive on this timeframe. The MACD oscillator has been in bearish formation since March and is close to an outright sell as it very close to crossing below the zero line.

Bottom line: If you are long ALK, I would consider selling on a small bounce if available. If the May low is broken, I would be a seller as the next support area is down in the upper $60s.



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