Stay Cautious

 | Jul 31, 2014 | 7:29 PM EDT  | Comments
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That was about as horrible a close as you can get. What tends to happen in this market since the solving of the problems in Washington is a quick downdraft and then a snapback.

But this time, it seems that there are so many crosscurrents that it might not be able to sort itself out that fast.

To me there are two different sets of problems. First there is the imputation of the Fed's motives -- ahead of the curve, behind the curve, who knows? I don't think the tapering is nearly as important as the other people do who talk on TV and write blogs, because it is not at all clear to me that buying of bonds is doing anything at all. I want bond selling!

Second, though, is Russia, and when straight shooters like BP's (BP) Bob Dudley lay out the risk factors, it takes your breath away.

I think today was the first day that people put pen to paper and figured out that numbers have to come down for a whole variety of industries.

It comes at a terrible time, because, as I have been writing, so many cycles are pausing -- autos, semiconductors, airlines, farm, maybe even oil at $97.

Sticking with the rap: Caution is warranted. As I wrote earlier, you can pick, but numbers are on the line. 

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