Flip a Coin

 | Jul 16, 2012 | 11:27 AM EDT
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Friday's action was a poor setup for sustained upside to start this week. Obviously, market players were feeling optimistic about the potential news flow this week and probably chased things a bit too much. They are having second thought this morning, and I'm seeing comments about how the macro situation simply doesn't justify much upside.

I don't know about that, but I am very concerned that Fed chief Ben Bernanke may disappoint the market when he speaks before Congress this week. The conditions are not right for him to make a major announcement about quantitative easing, and I expect him to repeat that the Fed is ready to act as needed.

The market has reversed and it is at the highs of the day, but I don't expect the buyers to create much momentum with the risk of Bernanke. Earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Coca-Cola (KO) are scheduled before tomorrow's open, but I don't expect them to have too much impact.

One of the more worrisome developments today is that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is testing all-time highs. That is a safe-haven play and reflects concerns about equities. Financials are holding up, which is good, but as far as leadership goes, it just doesn't exit right now.

I'm dinking around with a few short-term trades. Examworks Group (EXAM) has a nice looking chart. Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) is my stock of the week and it's bouncing back after some early pressure. Nanosphere (NSPH) is one I've discussed recently and it is close to flat after an early dip.

There isn't much on my radar and with Ben Bernanke on deck, the market is a coin flip right now.

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volatility is quite low here, and we could see some downsides here in the short term. ...



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