Stocks Seem Wrong All the Time

 | Jul 09, 2014 | 2:38 PM EDT
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I know it shouldn't be annoying that Procter & Gamble (PG) is up almost a dollar. It shouldn't bother me that McDonald's (MCD) is up more than a buck. Or that Chipotle is (CMG) is up $15 and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) is up almost $3.

I don't like it because, like so often is the case these days, there are no reasons for these moves. Does anyone think that June was the breakout month for McDonald's? Has food inflation away from limes gotten so low that Chipotle is out of the woods? Is corn feed cheap enough that wings will soon come down in price because chickens won't cost as much to feed so farmers will breed a ton of them?

It all seems like gibberish to me. Made-up excuses -- just like the rumor that Procter & Gamble is, at last, going to restructure. I did a video this morning saying that stocks seem wrong all of the time these days --  and they often are.

Take Boeing (BA) and United Technologies (UTX). Both of these companies are doing well, yet both have recently been excellent shorts as they bleed lower. I earlier queried in Columnist Conversation about the selling in the stock. On the news of still one more big order, Boeing opened up $2 higher than it is now. When I used to trade for a living and I wanted to sell and I saw that kind of strength I would say, "Walk away and let the bids build; it is obvious there is real demand." But that's not what the seller or sellers are doing. They are just laying all over it as if there is no good news.

When I used to see that kind of motivated seller, I would freak out and go on a frantic hunt for what the seller knows. These days, I just think, "Man does that guy not know how to trade." That, plus fatigue from being the stock with the biggest gain in the Dow last year, pretty much explains it, which means you need patience to own it.

Still, to see stocks up big on nothing and to see Boeing reverse hard on good news is galling. But that's just how this particular market seems to work. 

Columnist Conversations

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