The Great World Cup Charts Showdown

 | Jul 03, 2014 | 11:19 AM EDT  | Comments
  • Comment
  • Print Print
  • Print
Stock quotes in this article:

argt

,

argt

,

ewk

,

ewk

,

EWG

,

EWQ

,

gxg

,

EWZ

,

gml

,

ewn

While the rest of the world might rely on Paul the Octopus to make World Cup predictions, I'm going to go a different directions and use the charts to make mine.

Perhaps the daily charts of the ETFs representing the remaining teams in the tournament might provide some insight as to the winners. Given my lack of knowledge in international soccer, it is a method as good as any for me.

Argentina vs. Belgium

At first, this one looked like it would be close. Both charts have the potential for moves higher. But there is a clear-cut winner with today's action. The Global X FTSE Argentina 20 ETF (ARGT) looks to be a false breakout. The price is in danger of breaking below the rising wedge, while the RSI is making a lower high. The money flow is moderate, but not what I would expect to see on a stronger chart. The Belgium iShares (EWK) is testing a new breakout here, with only the May highs as resistance now. RSI is confirming the breakout in price and the MFI is getting strong. While both ETFs are trading above their eight- and 21-day simple moving averages, I think we have a clear winner here after a close start.

 

Argentina vs. Belgium
Source: StockCharts.com

 

Winner:  BELGIUM 2-1 in extra time.

Germany vs. France

Another doozy on our hands, with both charts having something to prove. The Germany iShares (EWG) has been running in a wedge format with price testing resistance today. There is a rising support line to meet a declining support line providing for a clear stop for any long position. RSI is breaking out in front of price, giving a nice bullish divergence here, although the MFI is lacking a bit. On the flip side, the France iShares (EWQ) has shaken off a potential breakdown with two solid up days here. Unfortunately, the RSI isn't convinced shares are headed higher and the MFI is dreadful. Furthermore, price is stuck below the 21-day simple moving average.

 

Germany vs. France
Source: StockCharts.com

 

Winner: GERMANY 3-1.

Colombia vs. Brazil

Not many folks trade the Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (GXG), so I have to take this chart with a grain of salt. Overall, the channel is pretty clear, with price sitting right in the middle. The fact price is over both the eight- and 21-day simple moving averages is a plus, but the falling MFI and struggling RSI are a concern. There is clear support at $20 and $19.50, with a breakout coming on a close over $20.50. I do like charts with a clearly defined entry and stop.

As far as risk-reward goes, the Brazil iShares (EWZ) have bulls on the edge of their seats, much like the fans will be at the games this weekend (and if bulls actually used seats). Price is struggling to hand on here and any close below $47 could be disaster. Bulls are trying to fight that off today, but the RSI under 50 and CCI under -100 would have me very worried. Of course, a close over $47.60 could pop us back to $49 quickly. In the end, there is just a little too much in the way of risk-reward here for me to favor EWZ.

 

Columbia vs. Brazil
Source: StockCharts.com

 

Winner: COLOMBIA 2-1 in PKs.

Costa Rica vs. Netherlands

Unfortunately, Costa Rica doesn't have its own ETF, so we had to take an early sub and use the SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America ETF (GML) here. It doesn't seem like the sub really helps Costa Rica though, even though this is similar to the GXG chart. Similar, but not the same. While there is a clear channel here for a pattern, price has falling below short-term moving averages. Furthermore, both CCI and RSI are falling while the MFI fails to make the bulls any better. On the flip side, the Netherlands iShares (EWN) has broken out higher today from a potential price rollover. The move higher in price coupled by the push higher in the RSI should give bulls some courage. A close over $26 sets this one up nicely to make a push for $27+ in the near term. This one isn't as close as it may appear on paper.

 

Costa Rica vs. Netherlands
Source: StockCharts.com

 

Winner: Netherlands 2-0

There you have it. If I have any success with these predictions, then maybe I'll come back and do the semis, but if not, let's just take this for what it is, a little fun before the Fourth of July weekend. I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable weekend!

Columnist Conversations

GS has cleared the important hurdle on the way up which increases the odds for an eventual rally towards the 1...
A good quarterly report has sent shares of Calamos Asset Management (CLMS) sharply higher. CLMS was up about ...
Electronics distributor Ingram Micro (IM) reported better than 16% growth in its Q3 sending the stock up about...
Market posting decent day considering Ebola getting headlines again. Believe investors have learned not to pa...

BEST IDEAS

REAL MONEY'S BEST IDEAS

Columnist Tweets

BROKERAGE PARTNERS

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.


TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.