Shoot for the Real Goal

 | Jun 26, 2013 | 10:40 AM EDT
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Can we reverse and go lower? That's been the pattern with these up openings. I will defer entirely to the 10-year note. Right now, the 10-year and the Chinese remain as in charge as ever. The decision by the Chinese government not to crack down on non-banks but to support them has been the fuel, and the spark has been the 10-year. Both are going in the direction of the bulls, so I don't know how weak we can be unless a motivated seller comes in near the bell and blows out the futures. Yes, it has become that thin, so don't rule it out.

Remember, the real goal for all people in this market is to make this business less of a guessing game about what the Fed will do and more of an investment business, where we judge stocks by what companies say. We invest in Boeing (BA) because of how Boeing's doing (I'll have the CEO, James McNerney, on Mad Money tonight) not by the Fed minutes.

We sell General Mills (GIS) based on margins and sales, not on what the Chinese say. We grade DuPont (DD) and Monsanto (MON) on their seed businesses, not on what Mario Draghi does in the wee hours of the morning.

And we like Cisco (CSCO) because John Chambers does a good presentation about the proprietary nature of Cisco's service business, not because Japan might be weak because "Abenomics" isn't working.

That's the goal. It is still rather far off. But it's what we will get when the Fed steps out of the way and the merits come back in vogue.

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volatility is quite low here, and we could see some downsides here in the short term. ...



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