A Reality Check Before You Buy

 | Jun 06, 2013 | 11:04 AM EDT  | Comments
  • Comment
  • Print Print
  • Print
Stock quotes in this article:

celg

,

ba

,

csco

,

frt

Tempting?

I know lots of people are tempted. But let me tell you what has to happen for you to buy right now.

You need 160,000 on the jobs print tomorrow.

You get 200,000, and QE3 is done.

You get 100,000, and QE3 failed.

If you can thread that needle, be my guest.

I think you have to focus on the generals: Celgene (CELG), Boeing (BA), Bristol-Myers (BMY), United Technologies (UTX), Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Regeneron (REGN), Gilead (GILD), Target (TGT), Texas Instruments (TXN), Seagate (STX) and Biogen Idec (BIIC). These have been the strongest stocks out there. They just started rolling over, compared with, say, the utilities and the real estate investment trusts, which have been correcting for ages now.

You almost want these stocks to come down to complete their rollover, as you can't get a bottom until all the generals give up the ghost.

Those are what you want to watch.

For me, I still don't trust this market. But unlike a lot of the chartists, I sure as heck like it more than from where it fell, as this is a 4.7% correction from the peak, and that's significant.

As always, stocks do not bottom all at once.

The first stock down should be the first to stabilize, and there I'm watching Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Ventas (VTR) and Simon Property Group (SPG). They've been crushed, and they all have good fundamentals. I think it is time for them to begin the process of putting in a bottom. 

Columnist Conversations

Upside call skew is looking rich relative to the cost of downside strikes in a number of widely-owned names in...
I had shorted a number of CH Robinson (CHRW) puts with 2015 and 2016 expiration dates back when the shares wer...
as of right now, 11am, with the Dow 30 at 16,855 means that the Dow 30 is up 1.60% for 2014.
Shares of BWLD are taking a beating this morning. The stock is off over 12% after opening the session wi...

BEST IDEAS

REAL MONEY'S BEST IDEAS

Columnist Tweets

BROKERAGE PARTNERS

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.


TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.