The Waiting Is the Hardest Part

 | May 30, 2014 | 6:21 AM EDT  | Comments
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Tough moment, right now. It's a moment where, when I hit up a stock, pretty much any stock, I say to myself, "nah, has run too much, have to wait for a pullback."

It's OK if you have one or two names that you think have moved up, where you want to wait for a pullback before you buy. But almost every stock I looked at today I thought had moved too much.

Let me tick down some. I think the oil service companies have been amazing and seem to want to go higher still. But when I look at where Schlumberger (SLB) has gone to, or Halliburton (HAL) for that matter, I say, no way, moved way too much. The charitable trust has been buying Ensco (ESV), but that's because it is hated, despised beyond all reason and has a decent yield. When I saw the stock up yesterday I figured someone has to downgrade it. Yet, that's the stuff that's really left to buy.

The high-quality software-as-a-service companies have corrected from hideous levels and I really like Concur (CNQR) and Salesforce.com (CRM). But the easy money has so clearly been made here it's palpable. We want to be bigger in Facebook (FB), but the stock had been restricted, meaning I have mentioned it on one of my shows and I wasn't allowed to buy it. The stock's now run to the point where I think it, too, has moved too high to grab some more. Old tech, meaning Oracle (ORCL) or Cisco (CSCO) or Intel (INTC) or Micron (MU), Seagate (STX) or Lam (LCRX), have all rallied way too much to pick at. The only one that hasn't is IBM (IBM) and I have to tell you that the trust's experience with IBM has been, well, let's just say suboptimal.

Same with retail. The good ones went up huge after their quarters. It is one of the reasons why we felt compelled to buy Costco (COST), on even the slightest dip. They just don't stay down, except, that is, the ones you don't really want to own like Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT) and DSW (DSW).

Group after group you see the same problem, with only the real stinkers available, whether it be the drug stores, the health maintenance companies, the the consumer packaged goods, the industrials, you name it. Have you seen the transports? New closing record for five straight days! You want to come in on top of that?

Now, I am sure you could argue it doesn't matter. If I like a stock I should just go buy it. If I think it is going higher, what's the point of waiting? I can tell you that if you approach stocks like that and we actually get the pullback, you are more likely to sell than buy. Or you can try to average down, but it's one of the toughest things to do. Believe me when -- not if, but when -- the pullback occurs, it will be because of something that will make it seem dicey to buy because it won't have come down enough or will end up coming back to these levels after a couple more days' advance. Which is what makes this moment difficult. Of course, it can be solved by a couple of down days. But if we don't get them, then I think we are in pass mode for many of the companies we would really like to own until the come-down and the chances of a mishap are distinctly smaller.

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