Baseless Suffering Among Homebuilders

 | May 29, 2013 | 2:28 PM EDT  | Comments
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dd

,

shw

So far, the money's staying the market. It's typically going toward the banks, which can make more money if the yield curve gains some inflection, and to the consumer cyclicals, which would be able to get some revenue growth to go with how lean they are.

That's what a bull wants -- for the money to be flushed from the safety zone to the risk zone.

Of course, there are real problems with this, because the main beneficiaries of the low rates in real terms are the homebuilders and accoutrements, and those are being crushed. People would rather be in DuPont (DD) than in Sherwin-Williams (SHW). That's despite the fact that, as I think anyone would tell you, if rates are going up it is because the value of a home is going up. That, in turn, means that you will spend more money on that home, which means Sherwin-Williams is the winner -- not the loser -- from higher rates.

But that's too hard to comprehend for the moment. You need to see rates stop moving up for people to say, "Hah, we are safe where we are."

The real worry would be if the money just totally went away, into cash into three-month CDs. That's not happening -- so far.

That's bullish.

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