Markets Are Learning the Trump Pattern

 | May 17, 2017 | 6:00 AM EDT
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Once again, we had another "scoop" about the administration after the market closed. There was a slightly different tone on Tuesday though.

Recall my view that the market teaches us a pattern over and over again until we learn it -- and then once we learn it, the market changes the pattern. Every time some breaking news on the administration came out over the past four months, we've seen folks make a "this is it" comment. They've said: "Surely this will take the market down," but then the market doesn't go down. So then they applaud the fact that the market held up so well. Sure, if you expect the market to go down on every word out of the White House and it doesn't, then you would be surprised.

That's been the pattern. On Tuesday, I saw several segments on television with folks noting that the market's rise has nothing to do with Trump. Of course, these same folks have spent the last four months calling the rally the "Trump Rally." But my point is that I saw several folks now alert us that the market no longer cares if something negative comes out. And that's the change in sentiment that I saw begin on Tuesday. Why? Because the market has trained them to think that way. There's nothing like price to change sentiment.

And so, we see on a day where breadth lags and the number of stocks making new lows expands that the put/call ratio for equities is under 60% for a third consecutive day. This now ties the streak we saw in the final days of March. Prior to that, we'd have to go back to early December for a longer streak of complacency.

Away from that, there was something else curious in the market on Tuesday. It has to do with bonds. The yields were down. Sure it was fractionally, but down all the same. And more so they have been down for the last several days:

Yet the KBW Bank Index closed on its high. Is that a potential head-and-shoulders bottom that I see?

And the utilities were down. I have not been a fan of the utes for a while, mostly because they hit my target back in March. It has been a long slog sideways for this group since then. But this recent action feels toppy to me. Again, why the divergence with bond yields of late?

The market is still not overbought, but thus far the rally has been unimpressive and full of complacency.

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