Twitter Is Not Facebook or Google

 | Apr 29, 2014 | 7:29 PM EDT
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Stop confusing Twitter (TWTR) with Facebook (FB) or Google (GOOG). It is absurd.

Twitter is a money-loser that didn't beat any of the whispers. Google is a fabulous money-maker, but it wasn't fabulous enough. Facebook beat every line (top, bottom and then some) with a massive guide up, and I could easily make the case that this stock is getting no more than a market multiple on 2016 earnings. That's how fast the company is growing.

But people simply don't like what Facebook -- or Google, for that matter -- is doing with its profit. When Facebook agrees to buy WhatsApp for billions of dollars, people aren't sure what it's getting. When Google buys Nest and it turns out the product doesn't work as advertised, you are reminded that Honeywell's (HON) Dave Cote remarked that he would have sold his whole thermostat division for those prices -- and his is much better than Nest's!

But Twitter? It hardly grew users. It is still losing a ton of money. One could argue that it peaked in its rate of growth. I think it is a fair argument.

I think the stock will go back to below $30, my original target price, after a real long run.

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