Rules of the Game: Earnings Road Race

 | Apr 29, 2013 | 9:00 AM EDT  | Comments
  • Comment
  • Print Print
  • Print
Stock quotes in this article:

jec

,

hlf

,

htz

,

car

It's another big week for earnings, with a little over half of the S&P 500 companies having delivered results thus far.

Analysts are eyeing an overall year-over-year decline of 0.04% for the companies remaining. Of course, companies often set low expectations, so they will have a beat when reporting time rolls around.

After Monday's bell, the beleaguered Herbalife (HLF) will deliver first-quarter results. Despite the fascination swirling around the company and the "he said, he said" battle between big activist investors, I'm just not interested. The stock continues to struggle, and even an earnings beat won't be enough to convince me of its viability at this time.

While the chattering class will undoubtedly be preoccupied with Herbalife, I'll be watching some S&P names that report after the close.

Hertz (HTZ) is one of our holdings. The stock has been delivering growth-style price appreciation since November. It's rallied above its 10-week average since then, rising to a new peak of $24.31 on Friday. Hertz is just on the verge of driving into large-cap land.

Rival Avis (CAR) is also trading in new high ground. It has a market capitalization of nearly $9.7 billion. It has excellent liquidity, moving about 7.9 million shares per day, on average. This stock, however, has a high beta of1.80. Trade has been orderly as Hertz rallied to new highs in recent months, but a glance at the chart shows some erratic trading patterns in the not-so-distant past.This type of action is maddening for traders. But for investors with a longer time horizon, it's often wise to sit through some corrections, and even view pullbacks as opportunities to add shares.

When Hertz reports after Monday's bell, analysts expect per-share income of $0.17 on revenue of $2.39 billion. Those would be increases over the year-ago quarter. Hertz beat views in each of the past four quarters.

Looking at the current price, many investors would probably conclude that a pullback is due soon. Perhaps, but take a glance at the price-to-earnings ratio of 17, which suggests that this stock is not yet in "priced for perfection" mode, and appears to have some driving room ahead. Hertz closed Friday at $24.19 a share.

Also reporting after Monday's close is S&P 500 component Jacobs Engineering (JEC). Jacobs provides design, engineering and architectural services to corporate and government clients. This is also a mid-cap, with a market capitalization of $6.7 billion. It trades about 1 million shares per day, and has a beta of 1.46. This chart, too, indicates some wide-and-loose trading patterns that undoubtedly vex many traders.

Jacobs has been in a correction since retreating from its March 28 high of $56.53. While momentum traders certainly would avoid this stock based on the technicals, the fundamentals merit a look. Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of $0.83 on revenue of $2.93 billion, year-over-year increases on the top and bottom lines. The stock regained its 50-day line last week, and closed Friday at $51.65, 0.3%, above that key price line.

For the year, analysts expect earnings of $3.33 per share, a gain of 13% over 2012. Consensus estimates were recently lowered, but the stock nonetheless appears to have good potential, based on the fundamentals.

Columnist Conversations

Kass:
Monitise has announced the sale of additional stock to Telefonica, Santander and Master Card. Expands relation...
Lang:
Lights, Camera, ACTION! This move lately in GPRO has been stellar, up nearly 12% over the past couple of sess...
For just under two weeks MCD has been bumping up against a very solid wall of resistance. The $96.95 to ...
Texas Instruments is surging today. Shares are up over 2.7% and are moving further into new 52W high gro...

BEST IDEAS

REAL MONEY'S BEST IDEAS

Columnist Tweets

BROKERAGE PARTNERS

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.


TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.