The Game Has Really Changed

 | Apr 24, 2013 | 6:18 PM EDT
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Here's what's driving everyone crazy about tech: the radical inconsistency of it all.

Lets go over it. Worst tech quarter so far? Arguably Intel (INTC). One of the best performers of the earnings period? Intel. Most hated big-cap tech stock going into the quarter? Microsoft (MSFT). Biggest winner? Microsoft.

Most despised mid-sized tech company? Akamai (AKAM). Despite huge insider buying going into the quarter, all we heard was gross margin weakness. Instead it crushes the numbers.

Most loved semi stock going into the quarter? Qualcomm (QCOM). Biggest disappointment? Qualcomm. Semiconductor stock with the most skepticism? Broadcom (BRCM). Best semi numbers? Broadcom.

Biggest winner? Apple (AAPL), immediately up $30. Biggest loser? Apple, immediately after up $30, it's down $47.

I could go on and on.

My point is simple. This game has become, well, ungameable. It is simply ridiculous to try to figure out what's really good and what's really bad by relying on Wall Street research, anecdotal evidence of a pastiche of how customers and suppliers might be doing. It's producing terrible results. We all know it. We just don't want to admit it and if we do we are regarded as a buffoon.

Okay, I am a buffoon.

But I talk to enough people to know that so is everyone else.

Random musings: See you at Nova!

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