The China Decline?

 | Apr 16, 2013 | 6:47 AM EDT
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If yesterday's selloff, a meaningful one by any stretch of the imagination, stays with us and changes the landscape, as so many people immediately intimated -- it surely didn't make anyone who was a bear more bullish -- then it will be the selloff that will be known as the China Death Knell Decline.

Until yesterday's stunner, a number out of China that was INCREMENTALLY weaker always had an initially negative response followed by a more positive reverberation that came from the recognition that the Chinese government was totally on top of the situation and was about to release a stimulus program that would knock your socks off.

In other words, bad news was good news.

Until yesterday.

Yesterday, bad news was just bad news. A GDP number under 8% meant that it is all over for Beijing.

Now, the irony was lost on NO ONE. Instantly we heard "of course BLANK would kill for that growth." And we also got plenty of people who were saying "they have the latitude to do something even bigger."

But we didn't get any follow-through and the Chinese stocks were pounded and then pounded again and any commodity with a China bid was just crushed.

All of this is NOT reminiscent of 2008. There these same stocks were flying high going into the disappointment. Then they got hit and then they came back incredibly hard as anyone remembers the charge back to $110 from the depths of the $21 Great Recession low by Caterpillar (CAT).

These same stocks couldn't bounce to save their lives yesterday.

What I find amazing is that the Chinese are, in the end, stuck with the rest of us. We let them pollute and have no labor laws to protect their public to speak of, so they can take away our jobs and then send us cheap knock-offs or low-priced goods, and, ironies of ironies, their biggest market, Europe, doesn't have enough money to buy their goods.

And I think that is what is dawning on people. The stimulus the Chinese need isn't from China.

It is from Europe.

And they aren't going to get it. So unless China sets up a trillion-dollar fund to buy its own merchandise and then give it to the Greeks and the Italians and the Spaniards, then China can take a nothing done on its comeback.

So, there is no stimulus that works -- that's the view of the market, not me -- and therefore you might as well sell everything, again the view of the market not me, which is how you get such a horrific down-volume down-price day and not be able to bounced even before disaster struck in Boston.

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volatility is quite low here, and we could see some downsides here in the short term. ...
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this chart is showing great bullish signs here, we like this to take out the old high shortly. ...



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