Let's Wish for a Whoosh in the Market

 | Apr 13, 2017 | 6:00 AM EDT
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Are you tired of the group rotation? Because that is what we still have. And until we get rid of the group rotation, it will be difficult to get the kind of rally everyone so desires.

What I mean by that is the market needs a whoosh. It needs one of those days where everything is down. One of those days where the TRIN is high (over 2.0 would be a good place to start). One of those days where 90% of the volume is on the downside. One of those days where it feels like there is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.

One of those days where the put/call ratio is well over 100%. One of those days where the VIX gets jumpy and then retreats. One of those days where the folks on television actually tell us they think the market is going lower, not that they think every dip is a buying opportunity. I realize it has been so long since we have been in this position, but we all know they show up. They always do.

To me, we have a dribbling market. It's been leaking for so long that it's difficult to be engaged. How can anyone look at the transports and believe the decline is just starting? The decline, or really the peak, was in early December. Yet no one seemed to care. And to be honest, the transports haven't broken the late-March low. But this has been a slow leak for months. I am still waiting for a target near 8600-8700.

Or what about the banks? The Bank Index also peaked in December. It had that last-gasp rally in February, but that was it. It has been a slow leaker for months. And even with the action in the bonds, folks continue to believe the financials will be terrific. They might rally on the upcoming earnings but again, we're talking about the slow leak in them; did you realize the Bank Index is down on the year?

I think the best the BKX can do on a rally is the underside of that line (93-ish). And on the downside I see 82 as a measured target.

And what of beloved technology and the SOX I have been harping about? I see there are now more shrugs than love for the semis, which two weeks ago were thought to be fabulous. There is some support at 960, but I ask you: Where do you think this is going on the upside? I would say it would be a gift if it got back to that line around 990.

If these charts go down from here, it is my opinion that the complacency will fly the coop very quickly as folks will feel as though there is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. I keep waiting for that event, and it continues to elude me. Instead we see constant teasing and saving and group rotation.

There will be no column on Friday. Happy Easter to all who celebrate!

For more market analysis from Helene Meisler, sign up for Top Stocks, published five times a week.

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