The Holy Grail Scenario

 | Apr 02, 2012 | 6:38 AM EDT  | Comments
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Stock quotes in this article:

upl

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swn

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apa

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bhi

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anr

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btu

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nrg

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wft

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bbt

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cma

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dd

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cof

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len

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kbh

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whr

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hd

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low

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tsc

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mas

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swk

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liz

One look at the charts shows a second quarter that looks like oil's going to collapse, not just natural gas, and regional banks plus housing are about to roar.

You always get suspicious when the charts are so uniform. Is there a price that people who own Ultra Petroleum (UPL) and Southwestern Energy (SWN) won't sell? Can Apache (APA) hold any level? What is going to happen to Baker Hughes (BHI), which seems to have no bottom?

Then there are the really scary charts: coal, like Alpha Natural (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) plus NRG Energy (NRG) -- wholesale power -- and Weatherford (WFT), the latter being such a natural takeover target I would hate to abandon is now.

The rails, tainted by coal, continue to look like they are going to roll over.

The whole complex is hideous. Meanwhile the buyers of oil, like PPG (PPG) and DuPont (DD) look terrific. Do their moves also foretell a world where the petroleum reserve spigots are open and the Audis are pumping like mad, the latter being buttressed by the developing terrific charts in the tankers like Nordic American (NAT)?  I haven't been thinking this way. Pretty much like everyone else I am afraid to short oil off of Mideast tensions. Even though Hillary Clinton revved the tensions up this weekend, the market's shrugging them off. 

Then there's the other side of the trade, anything financial but particularly the regional banks. BB&T (BBT), First Horizon (FHN), Comerica (CMA) and Capital One (COF) all seem so buyable even as they have run. They look like stocks that, after years in the wilderness have finally gotten their footing. That's the kind of action that can't be ignored. I figure they were marked up but good last week and should sell off today and early tomorrow, but then come right back into focus.

While the press for Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) may be hideous, the charts are holding up incredibly well as if some sort of new business lines truly do beckon. US Bancorp (USB) caught no less than three downgrades this week and it looks like the best of the lot.

It looks like Lennar (LEN) prevailed over KB Home (KBH) in the decision about whether to sell the group on KB's hideous quarter or buy it on Lennar's thing of beauty. Everything that goes into a home still looks so strong, from Whirlpool (WHR) and Masco (MAS) to Stanley Black and Decker (SWK). Everyone who sells into a home -- Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Tractor Supply (TSC) -- look extraordinary.

Meanwhile, almost every retailer -- not just home-related -- and every apparel company -- not just Liz (LIZ) -- continue to have powerful charts. You would think gasoline would have some blunting action, but after looking at these charts they are saying we have seen no impact.

Altogether when you look at the charts of the commodity takers it is nothing but net, but when you look at the charts of the commodity makers, lets just say they look like death warmed over.

If that's the case, we seem to be having growth with no inflation, something that seems inconceivable but is the holy grail of future stock price performance.

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