April Showers

 | Apr 01, 2013 | 11:25 AM EDT  | Comments
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We have a real nasty hangover going on today, and it looks like we had a ton of stocks that were just plain propped up by the end of the quarter.

But before we panic, we should remember the setup for April. We know that there have been 12 other instances when the DJIA was up more than 8% in the first quarter. Two-thirds of the time, the index finished the second quarter with a gain of at least 1%. We've had some real strong ones (five of them) when the Dow rallied more than 4% in the second quarter.

Further, since 1950, April has been the best month of the year, where we have had a 2.7% gain in the last 20 years and a 1.9% increase since 1950.

Remember that tech and materials lagged badly in the first quarter, and I have to believe that these groups are going to pick up the slack and take over the mantle for the packaged goods stocks and the health care names.

What could be ailing the market? How about a sense that March was a weak month -- it was just too cold. I keep thinking about Five Below's (FIVE) weak outlook and PVH's (PVH) soft March. Then compound things with the pulling of the Toys"R"Us deal.

It all adds up to a session in which they are really hammering stocks. That said, I would be picking right here, particularly in the housing plays, which are so weak today. They seemed the most propped up coming in.

They are falling hard today, defying the stats about April and the year. Just seems artificially lower after being artificially higher last week.

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