The Trader Daily

 | Mar 28, 2014 | 7:30 AM EDT
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The optimist in me would like to begin by noting the slight improvement in the trading of stocks like Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), Yelp INC. (YELP) and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB).

These issues, along with other beaten-down momentum favorites finally found some buyers. The realistic and logical side of me, however, is forced to opine that what we saw on Thursday was nothing more than simple short covering. The bottom line is that the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 still look terrible. And while they may benefit from a near-term bounce, both appear destined to be sold or faded on any one to three day bounce.

As for the DJIA and S&P 500, they're still stuck in relative balance. Active day timeframe participants are still advised to avoid chasing price breaks. Opting instead for a more responsive (fading) approach.

As you can see on the chart below, my primary areas of interest on the SPY for Friday are roughly 185 and 184. In my view, a sustained trade above 185 puts 186.07/186.13 back on the table. While anything below 184.04 favors downside price extension, and an immediate test of 183.75 and 183.08.

5-minute Profile SPY

Gold and silver futures took it on the chin (again) Thursday. But toward the end of the session, the various gold and silver miners began to bounce. When I study the daily chart of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), I still think the stock could see 22.90. I would likely be buyer at that level.

If you'd rather wait to buy on strength, simply sit on your hands until the ETF has recaptured its 50-day simple moving average, 13-day exponential moving average, and the 14-period RSI is back above its 50-center line. Once this occurs the most recent (yet to be identified) swing lows would be our downside reference point.

As for gold futures, review the two charts below. The first is a 4-hour volume profile, and is best suited for those comfortable moving in and out of the gold market. The second chart, a daily chart, is geared more toward swing traders. A

number of comments are posted on both charts, so review them and post any questions in the comments section below.

4-hour Volume Profile Gold Futures


Daily Gold Futures Chart

After being halted all day on Thursday for a review with the Medical Devices Advisory Committee, shares of Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS) are likely to be in play on Friday. The advisory committee voted 10 to zero in favor of Exact Sciences' Cologuard's approval. While the FDA is under no obligation to move forward with its advisory committee's opinion, the vote does put the odds heavily in Exact's favor.

Exact's near term fate can be boiled down to which side of 14.65 to 14.90 it is trading. Above that area puts new swing highs on the table, while anything beneath it shines a light on 14.20 and 13.60.


15-Minute Volume Profile EXAS

Have you ever wondered what might happen to a publicly-traded stock, whose fortunes (logically or not) are tied to those of a thinly-traded, and incredibly speculative bulletin board stock that gets halted by the SEC? If so, take a look at the chart of Full Circle Capital (FULL) below.

The short version to this mess is this: Advanced Cannabis Solutions (OTC: BB CANN) had its stock halted by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday. Based on the deal inked with Full Circle Capital on January 21, 2014, traders did the only thing they thought logical. They threw as much supply as humanly possible at FULL. More than three million shares, nearly half of FULL's outstanding shares, changed hands on Wednesday. The end result wasn't pretty.

Additional details related to the SEC's decision will no doubt come to light in the coming days. Until then, it's an undeniable case of buyer beware.

Any trading or volume profile related questions can be posted in the comments section below, emailed to me at or posted to my twitter feed @ByrneRWS

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