Ignore Most of What You Hear on the News

 | Mar 20, 2017 | 8:00 AM EDT
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I read the other day that some experts predicted the markets were going to be in trouble and start falling if the 10-year bond yield rose above 2.6%. Listen, I believe there is a technical reason here, a price channel that would be penetrated from the start of about 30 years ago -- hence, the breaking of a long-term trend.

I have also heard the recent rally was phony, something like the term "fake news" being tossed around daily. The rally is going to fail, it's only a matter of time; get out now while you can, they say.

In addition, I have been hearing some talk about the estimates to the GDP coming down sharply, the Atlanta Fed's model now looking at a slide for the first quarter of 2017 of 1.3%. And yet, the New York Fed has that same period estimate of a 3.2% advance. Who is right here? Maddening! Talk about a range! As information, the Atlanta Fed's model missed the mark badly in the estimate of the fourth quarter of 2016.

A hedge fund manager was on CNBC recently saying he was short bonds, long equities. "How can anyone be short stocks right now?" he said.

We often talk about noise and turning the volume down. Most of what we hear should be ignored. There is nothing we can do about bad information -- call it "fake news", if you wish. That may seem like a harsh label, but then again the headline seems to always get the most attention, rather than details. We are always reaching for the best and most reliable information, so we can make the best decisions and judgments for our money.

After such a big market surge, nobody wants to be left holding the bag when the market corrects or does even worse. But when do we pay attention to someone or something that may be a game changer? That's hard to determine, of course, but reliability and confidence comes with previous success.

We have often relied upon the charts and technicals to guide our path, and while not often smooth, they make up a high-probability road map. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future performance. We can assign a reliability factor and go with what we hear if we trust it, knowing full well that any notion can fail.

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