Looking at Long Shots and Turnarounds

 | Mar 19, 2014 | 1:30 PM EDT  | Comments
  • Comment
  • Print Print
  • Print
Stock quotes in this article:

fwm

,

ainv

,

wtw

,

acco

Each week when I go through the current edition of Value Line's newsletter, I look over the list of stocks that the investment research service says have the highest three-to-five-year annual returns. While these stocks are not all classic deep-value candidates, this collection of long shots and turnarounds uncovers some fantastic opportunities.

I dedicate a small portion of my portfolio to these picks, but if I were a younger man, I would concentrate much more of my attention on these special-situation stocks. While everyone else was waiting for new Fed Chair Janet Yellen this morning, I thought it would be more productive to take a longer look at some candidates that could give us returns measured in multiples rather than percentages.

Fairway Group Holdings (FWM) is a delightfully broken IPO. The company came public last April at $13 a share. Naturally, the market loved the idea of upscale grocery stores in the New York City market, and the stock jumped up as high as $29. It has been pretty much downhill since then, as results have disappointed, and the CEO who drove much of the success at Fairway stepped down. The company currently has 15 stores and plans to open three to four stores a year.

Although Fairway may face competition from Whole Foods (WFM), I believe the New York City market is big enough for both of them. The next few quarters will probably be weak, but if Fairway enjoys any sort of long-term success at growing the store base, this stock could easily gain 100% or more over the next few years. It is definitely a long-shot stock but one that would seem to have enormous payoff potential.

I have talked about Apollo Investment (AINV) as an alternative income selection. According to Value Line, Apollo is also a candidate for huge total returns over the next few years. The business development company has a diversified portfolio of investments in 93 companies. A slowly growing economy should lead to both improved portfolio performance and higher demand for non-bank financing in the middle-market companies it favors. Its relationship with one of the largest private-equity firms in the world, Apollo Global (APO), is also useful when it comes to sourcing deals.

A combination of being kicked out of the S&P indices and an add-on stock offering has pressured the shares recently, and this is a great entry point. The stock is trading right at net asset value and currently yields a very nice 9.41%. Insiders have been buying shares on the recent dip, and so should we. This business development company looks to have home-run potential for patient investors.

Weight Watchers (WTW) is another company that has seen very poor short-term results. It has lowered guidance and eliminated the dividend, and investors have not been too receptive to the shares. The stock is off more than 40% in the past six months. Weight Watchers is a pretty well-known brand, and it has been advertising and promoting very aggressively in 2014.

The March comparisons could be brutal for Weight Watchers, and we may see a final smash-down of the stock before it is all over, but from a long-term perspective, there is decent recovery potential in the stock. About 100 million people in the U.S. want to lose weight, but only a few million have tried a commercial service such as Weight Watchers to aid their efforts. That should increase as the economy improves, and when the jobs market recovers, we could see a significant jump in the number of people who are willing and able to pay for weight-loss assistance.

The list has a lot of old favorite long shots and turnarounds that still qualify. ACCO Brands (ACCO) is one of my favorite long-shot picks, and it still has significant long-term potential. I am a big fan of EZCORP (EZPW) and its recovery prospects as well, and the stock is still on the list of potential top performers. So is ION Geophysical (IO), the seismic data concern I have mentioned.

Long shots and turnarounds should be at least a small part of most portfolios. Younger, more aggressive investors should consider devoting a significant portion of their efforts to uncovering these potentially powerful stocks.

Columnist Conversations

1100 Handle May be Around the Corner
The action in the DOW today was the reverse of what we saw yesterday in the index. The rally off the lows in t...
The visualization of data is provided by Capital Market Laboratories (CML). Z is trading $115.95, down 2.8% w...
We are still seeing WYNN hold up above key WEEKLY support here, but I do want to show you what is in the way o...

BEST IDEAS

REAL MONEY'S BEST IDEAS

Columnist Tweets

BROKERAGE PARTNERS

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.


TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.